EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | April 28 2012 8:54 AM

EURUR/JPY's recovery attempt was limited below 108.00 resistance week and subsequent fall suggests that rebound from 104.61 is already finished. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for a test on 104.61 first. Break will confirm resumption of whole decline from 111.43 and should target 61.8% retracement of 97.03 to 111.43 at 102.53 next. On the upside, though, above 107.65 minor resistance will resume the rebound from 104.61 towards 111.43 high instead.

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In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether down trend from 169.96 has completed at 97.03 and the picture remains unclear. There were loss of medium term downside momentum as seen in convergence condition in weekly MACD. But rebound from 97.03 lacked sustainable strength to break through 111.57 yet. We'll stay neutral first. Note that firstly, while another fall cannot be ruled out yet, the break of 97.03 would be marginal. Meanwhile, sustain trading above 111.57 should raise much odds for the case that EUR/JPY's trend is reversing.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development argues that 97.093 might not be the bottom yet but reversal should be around the corner considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.