EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | May 05 2012 4:02 PM

EUR/JPY's break of 104.61 support last week confirmed resumption of fall from 111.43. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 97.03 to 111.43 at 102.53 next. Break will pave the way to retest 97.03 low. On the upside, above 105.45 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will remains mildly bearish as long as 108.00 resistance holds.

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In the bigger picture, with EUR/JPY now back below 55 days and 55 weeks EMA, the development is starting to favor the case that the down trend from 169.69 isn't completed yet. That is another low below 97.03 would be seen. Nonetheless, note that price actions from 139.21 are likely unfolding as a falling wedge pattern with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Current fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern in the bearish case. And thus, the break of 97.03 support should be marginal and strong support should be seen there to finally bring trend reversal. Hence, while deeper decline could be seen, we'll look for bottoming signs as EUR/JPY breaks 97.03. Meanwhile, above 111.43 will revive the case that EUR/JPY has indeed bottomed and would turn outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development argues that 97.03 might not be the bottom yet but reversal should be around the corner considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.