EUR/JPY's fall from 111.43 accelerated to as low as 100.20 last week and there is no so sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and current decline should extend to retest 97.03 low next. On the upside, above 101.90 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 104.61 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 169.96 is still in progress and fall from 111.43 is like resuming such down trend. Break of 97.03 will target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 97.03 from 111.43 at 95.18 and below. Nonetheless, note again that we're favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support below 95.18 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will be on reversal signal below 95.18.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development argues that 97.03 might not be the bottom yet but reversal should be around the corner considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.