EUR/JPY dropped to as low as 99.38 last week and the break of 100.20 confirmed resumption of whole fall from 111.43. While some more consolidation would be seen initially this week, upside of any recovery attempt should be limited by 102.11 minor resistance. Current decline is expected to continue to retest 97.03 low next. On the upside though, break of 102.11 will indicate short term bottoming and would then bring stronger rebound back to 104.61 support turned resistance.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 169.96 is still in progress and fall from 111.43 is likely resuming such down trend. Break of 97.03 will target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 97.03 from 111.43 at 95.18 and below. Nonetheless, note again that we're favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support below 95.18 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will be on reversal signal below 95.18.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development argues that 97.03 might not be the bottom yet but reversal should be around the corner considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.