EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | June 02 2012 4:22 PM

EUR/JPY dropped to as low as 95.64 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But upside of recovery is expected to be limited by 100.20 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 95.64 will target next projection level at 95.18 and then 90 psychological level.

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In the bigger picture, break of 97.03 support last week confirmed resumption of the larger down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. Current fall could target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 97.03 from 111.43 at 95.18 and possibly further to 90 psychological level. However, as we're favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support below 95.18 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will be on reversal signal below 95.18.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Reversal should be around the corner considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.