EUR/JPY rebounded further to as high as 100.62 last week but failed to sustain above mentioned 100.20 resistance (38.2% retracement of 108.00 to 95.64 at 100.36). Initial bias remains neutral this week with focus on 98.23 minor support. Break of this 98.23 will suggest that rebound from 95.64 is finished already and will flip bias back to the downside for 95.64. Break will confirm resumption of recent fall from 111.43 and should send EUR/JPY through next projection level at 95.18 to 90 psychological level. However, break of 100.62 will extend the rebound towards 104.61 support turned resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the larger down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress. Current fall could target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 97.03 from 111.43 at 95.18 and possibly further to 90 psychological level. However, as we're favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support below 95.18 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will be on reversal signal below 95.18.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Reversal should be around the corner considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.