Despite edging higher to 100.90 initially, EUR/JPY quickly lost momentum and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week with focus on 98.53 minor support. Break there will indicate that rebound from 95.64 is already completed. In such case, bias will be flipped back to the downside for 95.64 and below. Meanwhile, above 100.90 will extend such corrective rise to 61.8% retracement of 108.00 to 95.64 at 103.27 and possibly above.
In the bigger picture, the larger down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and could extend further lower towards 90 psychological level. However, as we're favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support above 88.96 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will be on reversal signal in case of another decline. Meanwhile, break of 104.61 will be the first signal of reversal while further break of 111.43 should confirm.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Reversal should be around the corner considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.