EUR/JPY's fall continued to as low as 96.42 last week. Downside momentum is a bit unconvincing with 4 hours MACD staying above signal line and spiraling up. But with 98.13 minor resistance intact, we'd hold on to the bearish view. That is, corrective rise from 95.64 is completed at 101.62 already and deeper fall should be see to retest 95.62 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 114.43 and should target 61.8% projection of 111.43 to 95.64 from 101.62 at 91.86. Nonetheless, break of 98.13 resistance will now argue that price actions from 95.62 is developing into the three wave consolidation pattern and a test of 101.62 could then be seen before the fall from 111.43 resumes.

In the bigger picture, with 111.43 resistance intact, the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and could extend further lower to 90 psychological level. However, as we're favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support above 88.96 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will be on reversal signal.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Reversal should be around the corner considering bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD.

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