EUR/JPY formed a short term bottom at 94.11 last week and rebounded strongly since then. With daily MACD crossed above signal line, more consolidations could be seen above 94.11 in near term. Stronger recovery might be seen to falling trend line resistance (now at 98.64). On the downside though, below 95.64 will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 94.11 low instead.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and could extend further lower to 90 psychological level. However, as we're favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support above 88.96 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will be on reversal signal.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Reversal should be around the corner.

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