After some setback to 94.92, EUR/JPY's rebound from 94.11 resumed by taking out 97.32 resistance. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for trend line resistance (now at 98.00) first. On the downside, break of 94.92 is needed to indicate completion of such rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish for further rally.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and could extend further lower to 90 psychological level. However, as we're favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support above 88.96 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will remain on reversal signal.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Reversal should be around the corner.

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