EUR/JPY edged higher to 97.81 last week lacked follow through buying and retreated since then. With 94.92 minor support intact, rebound from 94.11 is still in mild favor to continue higher. Above 97.81 will target 100 psychological level and above. However, note that break of 94.92 minor support will firstly indicate completion of rebound form 94.11. Secondly, the corrective structure in turn argues that larger decline from 111.43 is resuming for a new low below 94.11.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress and could extend further lower to 90 psychological level. However, as we're favoring the case that pattern from 139.21 is a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern. Hence, we'll expect strong support above 88.96 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal. So, focus will remain on reversal signal.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Reversal should be around the corner.

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