EUR/JPY jumped to as high as 100.43 before retreating mildly. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rally should extend to 38.2% retracement of 111.43 to 94.11 at 110.72 first. Break will target 101.62 key resistance next. On the downside, below 99.59 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained above 97.98 support and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, fall from 139.21 is viewed as part of the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96. Such pattern is seen as a falling wedge with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Current development is raising the odd that such down trend is finished at 94.11. Break of 101.62 will be another sign that affirm this bullish view and will turn focus back to 111.43 key resistance for confirmation. Before, that, another decline could be seen but even in that case, we'll expect strong support above 88.96 to contain downside, form a major bottom and bring reversal.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 169.96 is viewed as a corrective move even though it's very deep comparing to the rise from 88.96 (00 low). It could either be a correction or part of a consolidation pattern but that's not too relevant as the range of 88.96/169.96 is so large. The relevant point is that we don't anticipate a break of 88.96 low. And hence, reversal should be around the corner.

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