EUR/JPY rose to 103.86 last week but formed a short term top there and retreated deeply. Further pull back might be seen initially this week. But downside is expected to be contained by 99.52 support and bring another rise. Rally from 94.11 is expected to continue and above 103.86 will target 61.8% retracement of 111.43 to 94.11 at 104.81 and above.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that whole down trend from 169.96 (3008) has completed at 99.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Focus is now on 111.43 key resistance level. Break will confirm this bullish case and bring further medium term rise to 123.31 and above (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08). And, we'd favor this bullish scenario as long as 99.52 support holds.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 169.96 is viewed as a corrective move even though it's very deep comparing to the rise from 88.96 (00 low). It could either be a correction or part of a consolidation pattern but that's not too relevant as the range of 88.96/169.96 is so large. The relevant point is that we don't anticipate a break of 88.96 low. And hence, reversal should be around the corner.

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