EUR/JPY's pull back from 103.86 continued last week but was held above 99.52 support support. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Even in case of another dip, we'd still expect downside to be contained by 99.52 and bring rise resumption eventually. Above 101.04 will flip bias back to the upside first. Break of 103.86 will extend the rally from 94.11 to 103.86 and above. Though, break of 99.52 will indicate reversal and will turn focus back to 97.98 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that whole down trend from 169.96 (3008) has completed at 99.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Focus is now on 111.43 key resistance level. Break will confirm this bullish case and bring further medium term rise to 123.31 and above (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08). And, we'd favor this bullish scenario as long as 99.52 support holds. Though, considering that EUR/JPY can't take out 55 weeks EMA decisively yet, break of 99.52 will favor another low below 94.11 instead.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 169.96 is viewed as a corrective move even though it's very deep comparing to the rise from 88.96 (00 low). It could either be a correction or part of a consolidation pattern but that's not too relevant as the range of 88.96/169.96 is so large. The relevant point is that we don't anticipate a break of 88.96 low. And hence, reversal should be around the corner.

 

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