EUR/JPY's sharp decline last week argues that recovery from 109.57 has already completed at 113.56 already. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 109.57 first. Break will confirm resumption of recent decline from 123.31 and should target 61.8% projection from 117.74 to 109.57 from 113.56 at 108.51 next. On the upside, above 112.05 minor resistance will, however, turns bias neutral and indicates that consolidation from 109.57 is not finished yet and will extend further with another rise above 113.56.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 105.42 medium term was merely a correction and has completed at 123.31 already. Whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 was not finished yet and is still target a new low below 105.42. Also, as weekly MACD will most likely break its trend line as the current fall from 123.31 extends, EUR/JPY is possibly regaining medium term down side momentum too. Break of 105.42 will target 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 102.42 first.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development raised the possibility that the 105.42 is not yet the bottom. In case of another fall, we'll continue to look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.