EUR/JPY formed a short term bottom at 108.70 last week and rebounded strongly on Japan intervention. Nevertheless, the break of 113.41 resistance was brief and the cross was indeed held by the falling 55 days EMA and weakened towards the end. There is no indication of reversal and fall from 123.31 is still in favor to continue. Below 110.34 will target a test on 108.70 first. Break will confirm decline resumption for 105.42 support and below. On the upside, above 114.17 flip bias back to the upside and extend the rebound from 108.70. But after all, key level is in 117.74 (61.8% retracement of 123.31 to 108.70 at 117.72) and as long as it holds, we'll stay bearish.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 105.42 medium term bottom was merely a correction and has completed at 123.31 already. Whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 was not finished yet and should extend beyond 105.42. Also, as weekly MACD will most likely break its trend line as the current fall from 123.31 extends, EUR/JPY is possibly regaining medium term downside momentum too. Break of 105.42 will target 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 102.42 first. Though, note that break of 123.31 resistance will in turn revive the case that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn focus back to 139.21 resistance instead.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Current development raised the possibility that the 105.42 is not yet the bottom. In case of another fall, we'll continue to look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.