EUR/JPY's rise from 129.02 extended further to as high as 136.05 last week. The break of 135.47 resistance indicates that whole fall from 138.70 has completed at 129.02 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally could be seen to retest 138.70/139.21 resistance zone. On the downside, below 134.62 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring retreat. But short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 132.25 support holds and further rally is still in favor.
In the bigger picture, current development dampens the view that medium term rebound from 112.10 has completed at 139.21. Price actions from 137.28 has possibly just consolidation in the medium term rise, inform of triangle. Break of 138.70 will affirm this case and target 61.8% projection of 112.10 to 137.38 from 129.02 at 144.64 next. On the downside, though, break of 129.02 support will revive the case that rise from 112.10 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Subsequent price actions are either developing into resumption of the multi decide down trend from 285.56, or wide range corrective pattern. In either case, upside should be limited well below 169.96 high and we're expecting at least one more medium term fall. The final structure of the rebound from 112.1 will provide more indication on whether a test on 88.96 low would be seen.