EUR/JPY's rally extended further to as high as 138.34 last week before closing strongly at 138.13. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to retest 138.70/139.21 resistance zone first. On the downside, though, break of 136.96 minor support will argue that a short term top is in place, possibly with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. In such case, pull back should be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 135.47) or below before rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 137.38 are treated as consolidation to medium term rebound from 112.10. Such consolidation might have completed in form of a triangle pattern at 129.02. Break of 139.21 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 112.10 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 112.10 to 137.38 from 129.02 at 144.64 next. While some initial resistance might be seen at 139.21 and bring pull back, the bullish case will be unchanged as long as 129.02 support holds. Break of 129.02 is needed to revive the vase that rise from 112.10 has completed.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Subsequent price actions are either developing into resumption of the multi decide down trend from 285.56, or wide range corrective pattern. In either case, upside should be limited well below 169.96 high and we're expecting at least one more medium term fall after the current rise from 112.10 completes. The final structure of the rebound from 112.1 will provide more indication on whether a test on 88.96 low would be seen.