EUR/JPY recovered strongly last week but after all, upside was limited below 135.97 resistance and thus retain the near term bearish outlook that fall from 138.47 is still in progress. Friday's fall and touching of 133.24 minor support, with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, suggests that choppy recovery from 131.56 has completed at 135.68 already. Initial bias is turned to the downside this week for retesting 131.56 first. Break will bring fall resumption towards 129.02 key support next. However, note that a break of 135.68 resistance will argue that fall from 138.47 has completed and will turn outlook bullish for retesting this resistance first.
In the bigger picture, note that there is no confirmation that corrective rebound from 112.10 has completed yet as long as 124.35 support holds. Price actions from 137.38 might still turn out to be consolidations to rise from 112.10 only and break above 139.21 would bring another medium term rise before concluding the rise from 112.10. However, note that break of 129.02 will be the first indication that rise from 112.10 has completed and further break of 124.35 will confirm. in Such case, the whole long term down trend from 169.96 could possibly be resuming and retest of 112.10 should be seen next.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Subsequent price actions are either developing into resumption of the multi decide down trend from 285.56, or wide range corrective pattern. In either case, upside should be limited well below 169.96 high and we're expecting at least one more medium term fall after the current rise from 112.10 completes. The final structure of the rebound from 112.10 will provide more indication on whether a test on 88.96 low would be seen.