EUR/JPY's fall last week is inline with the near term bearish view that decline from 138.47 is still in progress. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 131.56 support first. Break there will confirm fall resumption to 129.02 support next, which is close to 100% projection of 138.47 to 131.56 from 135.68 at 128.77. On the upside, above 132.94 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 135.68 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, at this moment, EUR/JPY is still bounded in sideway trading in range below 139.21. There is no confirmation of completion of medium term rebound from 112.10, which is a correction to the long term fall from 169.96. yet. Nevertheless, a break of 129.02 support will affirm the case that EUR/JPY has already topped out in medium term and will turn focus to 124.35 support. Break will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish for a retest on 112.10 low next and will probably bring resumption of whole long term down trend from 169.96. On the upside, however, above 135.68 resistance will dampen this case again and shift favors back to the case that rise from 112.10 is in progress.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Subsequent price actions are either developing into resumption of the multi decade down trend from 285.56, or wide range corrective pattern. In either case, upside should be limited well below 169.96 high and we're expecting at least one more medium term fall after the current rise from 112.10 completes. The final structure of the rebound from 112.10 will provide more indication on whether a test on 88.96 low would be seen.