-EURUSD Fibonacci and 200 day SMA at 1.38-1.39
-GBPUSD at risk of near term weakness
-AUDUSD and NZDUSD at risk of pullbacks
-USDJPY bearish below 99
Euro / US Dollar
The EURUSD has exceeded the 50% retracement of the decline from 1.4723 and is closing in on the 61.8% at 1.3811. The 200 day SMA is at 1.3890 and sloping down. As mentioned last week, I'll be looking to go short over relatively soon. The longer term trend is still viewed as down since the decline from 1.4723 is an impulse.
British Pound / US Dollar
The break through the top of the channel that contained wave B signals that wave C (flat) is most likely underway to above 1.50. Near term, there may be 5 waves up from 1.3653. This leaves open the possibility of a correction back to the 1.4150-1.4268 zone.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
While the AUDUSD trend is still strongly bullish, price action since the October 2008 low has carved out what could be a head and shoulders continuation pattern. This is pure speculation at this point but the ‘look' is there. The pair tested .70 today and has increased for 10 consecutive days (including today). The risk of a correction, if not an outright reversal, has increased.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
As mentioned in recent weeks, the bullish target zone / potential topping area for the NZDUSD is between .5457 (former 4th wave and 50% retracement) and .56 (61.8% retracement). Price has reached the upper end of this area, which increases the risk of a strong pullback.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The longer term USDJPY decline may have resumed. The advance from 87.09 is in 3 waves and price has dropped below the wave A high at 94.67, confirming that the decline is in 3 waves (and can not become an impulse). Favor the downside as long as price is below 99.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
The drop below 1.2350 negates the previously held bullish bias. The USDCAD did exceed its wave 3 terminus on March 9, so it is possible that that advance completed wave 5 within a 5 wave advance from the 2007 low. Price has also dropped beneath its 55 day SMA, which favors bears.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Watch for USDCHF support from Fibonacci all the way down to 1.0925. The decline from 1.1973 is wave C of a flat (an extremely violent flat at that) that should lead to formation of a secondary low (primary low was 1.0367) in the next few weeks.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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