-EURUSD pressing against top of diagonal
-GBPUSD B wave low may in place
-AUDUSD trading above resistance line
-USDJPY short term triangle?
-USDCAD support at 1.26
Euro / US Dollar
Quite simply, the series of higher highs and higher lows since early March is bullish. I have written recently that know that once the turn occurs, it will be fast...there are 2 areas to look for longs; the low side of the diagonal line and a break of the top side. The top side of the diagonal line has been broken (arrow) and the advance is expected to accelerate in the coming days. Short term support is at 1.2750. The minimum target, which may take a few weeks to be reached, is 1.33. Bulls can move risk to 1.2614.
British Pound / US Dollar
A B wave low may be in place now. The count that I am working with now treats the rally from 1.35 to 1.4990 as wave A of a flat (flats have subwaves 3-3-5). Wave B is in 3 waves and waves a and c of B are roughly equal (a common occurrence). Exceeding 1.3954 would be the first sign that a low is in place.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
It is probable that a flat is underway in the AUDUSD in the guise of a complex W-X-Y pattern that will end above .7275. The AUDUSD is trading above the resistance line drawn off of the January 7th and February 9th highs; a daily close above would be bullish. As is usually the case, momentum (RSI) has already broken through its comparable resistance.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
The NZDUSD has declined impulsively (5 waves) since its 2008 high and that decline was followed by a 3 wave rally (from the November low). The decline from .6090 is now in 5 waves and the risk of a sharp advance back to at least .5454 in a small second wave is high. The close above the trendline from early January as well as divergence with RSI on the daily favors bulls.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Resistance for the USDJPY is at 100.50 / 101; which is the November 4 high / 61.8% of the decline from 110.71. Short term structure has not confirmed that a top is in place. In fact, a triangle may be underway. If so, then a day or two more of range within the triangle is likely before a terminal thrust upward. A drop below Elliott channel support would begin to suggest that a top is in place. That line is at 97 today.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
If the USDCAD is breaking higher in an impulse as a terminal thrust from a triangle (that had been underway since October), then price needs to remain above 1.2348. Near term, weakness below 1.2709 looks likely but there is potential support from the 61.8% of 1.2348-1.3068 at 1.2618. This level is reinforced by a short term support line.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
There is no reason to change the call for lower prices. Expectations are for the USDCHF to decline to at least 1.13. This is where the ending diagonal, which are usually fully retraced, began.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to email@example.com