-EURUSD breaks above 200 day SMA
-GBPUSD Elliott channel
-AUDUSD nears 50% Fibonacci
-NZDUSD breaks wave A high
-USDJPY treads water
-USDCAD RSI divergence
Euro / US Dollar
Bullish structure has held and the EURUSD is breaking to new highs. A 3rd wave is underway near term that should take the EURUSD above 1.3742, maybe as early as next week. Price is above the 200 day SMA now and there is no chart resistance until 1.3586. Risk can be moved to 1.3342 although at this point, price should not come near that level. Again, the objective remains above 1.3742 and in the 1.4100-1.4200 area.
British Pound / US Dollar
I wrote this in a technical alert yesterday at DailyFX - The GBPUSD low today (just a few hours ago) occurred right at Elliott channel support. Elliott channeling is a technique that is used to identify wave 4 lows - among other significant points. The tops of waves 1 and 3 are connected and then a parallel line is extended from the bottom of wave 2. The extended line approximates the end of wave 4. This is not always the case, but it may be here. The implications are bullish as wave 5 may be underway now towards 1.5300 (wave 5 = wave 1 at 1.5300). There is no change to this analysis and risk can be moved to 1.4942.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The rally from .6953 is wave v of C and the objective at .7630 has already been reached (which is where wave v of C would equal wave i of C). The next potential resistance level is from the 50% retracement of the decline from .9822 at .7693. Divergence with RSI warns of a top within the next few weeks.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
I wrote earlier in the week that I am highlighting how wave C of an A-B-C advance from the low may be underway. Under this count, the NZDUSD would exceed .60 and potentially reach .6340 or .6740 in the next few months. Having broken the wave A high yesterday, this count is confirmed. .6340 is the objective. Remaining above .5890 keeps the near term trend pointed higher.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The long term trend remains down and I expect a resumption of that trend although there is near term upside potential. A potential head and shoulders top that is evident. Coming back beneath the 200 day SMA would begin to suggest that the decline has resumed.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
A larger USDCAD decline is underway. Fibonacci support begins at 1.1359, which price is closing in on, and extends all the way to 1.0400. In other words, there is significant bearish potential. Near term, 5 waves down from 1.2510 may be near completion. As such, there is risk of at least a correction. Continued divergence with RSI warns of a sharp pullback.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
The USDCHF decline is also likely to extend. 1.0925 is the 61.8% of the advance from 1.0367 and potential support. Staying below 1.1341 keeps the pair on a path lower.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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