• Euro carving out major head & shoulders top
• Dollar/Yen bias favors additional upside beyond 100.00
• Cable stalls by key 78.6% fib retrace; lower top sought out
• Dollar/Swiss inverse head & shoulders suggestive of major base

6-10-09DailyclassPiv

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - The latest rebound has stalled out by the 61.8% fib retracement off of the 1.4340-1.3805 move and former support turned resistance in the 1.4100 area, with the market rolling back over to suggest that a fresh lower top could now be in place ahead of the next drop through 1.3800. A closer look at an 8-hourly chart, shows the formation of a major head & shoulders top, that if triggered, would ultimately project a more significant decline back towards a measured move objective by 1.3250 over the coming weeks. Only back above Wednesday's high at 1.4145 delays. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO SELL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4245

R3

6/4 high

1.4145

R2

6/10 high

1.4100

R1

6/9 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3900

S1

Figure

1.3850

S2

6/9 low

1.3805

S3

6/8 low


USD/JPY



USD/JPY - The break of shorter-term trend-line resistance off of the 2009 highs on Friday likely opens the door to additional upside over the medium-term, with any setbacks now seen well supported on dips to 97.00, which acts as previous resistance now turned support. Look for a higher low to carve out in the lower 97.00's ahead of fresh upside over the coming days back above 98.90 and towards the more critical falling trend-line resistance just over 100.00. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO BUY.

Level

Resistance

Details

99.75

R3

5/7 high

98.90

R2

6/5 high

98.60

R1

6/9 high

Level

Support

Details

97.10

S1

6/9 low

96.65

S2

200-Day SMA

95.85

S3

6/4 low


GBP/USD



GBP/USD - Rallies have stalled out shy of the 1.6665 2009 highs from the previous week, with the 78.6% fib retracement off of the 1.6665-1.5800 capping gains ahead of the latest pullback. A lower top is now sought out by 1.6475 to be confirmed on a break back below 1.5800 over the coming days. Below 1.5800 will open deeper setback towards next support in the 1.5350-1.5500 area. Only back above 1.6475 delays. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO SELL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.6665

R3

6/3 2009 high

1.6475

R2

6/10 high

1.6365

R1

6/9 high

Level

Support

Details

1.6245

S1

6/5 high

1.6105

S2

6/8 high

1.5985

S3

6/9 low


USD/CHF

USD/CHF - Setbacks have stalled out by the 61.8% fib retracement off of the recent 1.0590-1.0990 move, which also coincides with previous resistance now turned support, and a fresh higher low is now sought out by 1.0720 to be confirmed on a break back above 1.0990 over the coming sessions. The formation on the 8-hourly chart has taken the shape of a rough inverse head & shoulders pattern that ultimately projects upside back towards the 1.1400 area over the coming weeks. Only back under 1.0720 delays. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO BUY.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.0990

R3

6/8 high

1.0955

R2

6/9 high

1.0860

R1

5/29 high

Level

Support

Details

1.0720

S1

6/10 low

1.0660

S2

6/5 low

1.0640

S3

6/4 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

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