Euro trades lower but still confined to inside day price action. Dollar/Yen breaks below 99.30 to open deeper setbacks. Cable inches closer to 1.5000 barriers. Dollar/Swiss attempts to put in higher low by 1.1305.

041409_classical_table1

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - Remains locked in a multi-day consolidation since rallying to 1.3740 in mid-March. At this time it is unclear as to whether we are in the process of carving out a lower top by 1.3740 ahead of the major trend resumption, or attempting to put in a higher low above 1.3000 ahead of fresh upside beyond 1.3740. Tuesday's inside day price action does little to provide additional insight. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3585

R3

4/6 high

1.3500

R2

Psychological

1.3420

R1

4/7 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3125

S1

4/13 low

1.3090

S2

4/10 low

1.3000

S3

Psychological

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - Has broken down through the recent 99.30 consolidation lows to suggest that an interim top is now in place by 101.45. Deeper setbacks are now favored over the coming sessions back towards next key short-term support by 98.20 with acceleration seen on a break to 95.95. Only back above Tuesday's high at 101.45 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

100.75

R3

4/10 high

100.45

R2

4/14 high

99.85

R1

4/13 low

Level

Support

Details

98.20

S1

4/1 low

97.20

S2

3/31 low

95.95

S3

3/30 low

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - Price action has been constructive since bottoming by 1.3655 on March 11. While the broader structure remains grossly bearish, there is the potential now for a major base taking form with a break back above 1.5000 to help confirm and accelerate gains. Look for a higher low now by 1.4580 to be confirmed on a break back above 1.5000. Above 1.5000 exposes the 1.5375 2009 highs further up. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.5165

R3

1/12 high

1.4990

R2

2/9 high

1.4960

R1

4/6 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4825

S1

4/14 low

1.4605

S2

4/13 low

1.4580

S3

4/7 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - Indeed the sharp setbacks from Monday were very well supported ahead of 1.1240 and a fresh higher low is now sought out by 1.1305 ahead of the next upside beyond 1.1625. Nevertheless, with daily studies showing neutral, we prefer to remain on the sidelines. Only back below 1.1240 gives reason for concern. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1550

R3

3/30 high

1.1490

R2

4/2 high

1.1450

R1

4/14 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1305

S1

4/13 low

1.1240

S2

4/6 low

1.1225

S3

3/27 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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