•Euro hourly H&S triggers but market not ready to break down
•Dollar/Yen breaches upper end of triangle resistance
•Cable shows good follow through from bearish outside day
•Dollar/Swiss attempting to base but not ready for upside break just yet
EUR/USD - Finally showing signs of a legitimate short term top on Wednesday after just squeaking out fresh 2009 highs by 1.4340 ahead of the latest sharp pullback. Thursday's break below 1.4100 confirms with the trigger of an hourly h&s top and opens deeper setbacks towards initial support at 1.4050, with a break accelerating and exposing 1.3790 further down. Only back above 1.4340 negates. We are short with an objective by the measured move projection off of the h&s break. Position: SHORT @1.4210 FOR A 1.3900 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.4365.
USD/JPY - The market has been well offered over the past several weeks but setbacks have stalled out just shy of next key support by 93.55 from March, which guards against the critical 87.15 multi-year trend lows. We have seen a contraction in volatility over the past few sessions, taking the form of a triangle, which suggests that a breakout looms. The market has marginally breached triangle resistance on Thursday which could now open an upside break beyond 97.25 over the coming session. No positions at this time but we retain a mild bullish bias. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
GBP/USD - Continues with the impressive correction off of the 2009 highs set by 1.6665 on Wednesday, with the market pulling back to 1.6085 thus far ahead of the latest minor bounce. The daily RSI has only just rolled over from overbought and there is scope for additional declines over the coming sessions back towards next support which comes in by 1.5920-1.6000. We booked profit on half of our position earlier in the day and will hold the remaining half for now with a revised stop at cost. Position: SHORT @1.6407 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE, STOP ON A NY CLOSE ABOVE 1.6687.
USD/CHF - Setbacks have been very well supported by 1.0590 and the market has reversed course to suggest that a base could now be in place. Daily studies show plenty of room to run with Thursday's break back above 1.0745 to accelerate and open a direct test of former support at 1.0800, above which opens a more significant upside extension to 1.0955. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail email@example.com and you will be added to the distribution list.
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