-EURUSD correction may be complete
-GBPUSD pattern at odds with other USD pairs
-AUDUSD and NZDUSD expected to see new highs
-USDJPY triangle still possible
-USDCAD correction may also be complete
Euro / US Dollar
A push above 1.3742 is still required to satisfy the minimum requirement for wave Y, at which time I will expect a top and reversal (objectives are at points from 1.3800 to 1.4200). Near term, a correction of the advance from 1.3250 to 1.3720 may be complete.
British Pound / US Dollar
The short term GBPUSD pattern is at odds with the other USD crosses, thus confidence is low in direction. Bigger picture, wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from the 2007 high (2.1160) is probably still underway. 1.5735, the confluence of the 38.2% of the decline from 2.0162 / December 2008 high, seems a likely target. This level intersects with a resistance line at the end of May.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The rally from .6953 is wave v of C and the objective at .7630 has already been reached (which is where wave v of C would equal wave i of C). The 50% retracement of the decline from .9822 at .7693 is giving bulls fits for now but one more high seems likely this week. Higher RSI on the 240 minute chart suggests that the top is not yet in place (tops almost always occur with momentum divergence). Watch the top of the short term Elliott channel for resistance after the AUDUSD breaks to a new high. A small 4th wave may be complete. Structure is bullish above .7245.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
Wave structure along with the RSI condition explained in the AUDUSD analysis favors a new high in the NZDUSD as well. Wave structure is bullish above .5782.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The USDJPY has broken beneath its 2+ month head and shoulders neckline. This development is bearish and even more so in the context of long term wave structure, which suggests a new all time low (below 80). However, I want to urge caution as the pair approaches 93.50. The circled area could still be a triangle in the X wave position. With this in mind, bears may want to lighten up.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
I wrote the last few days that 5 waves down from 1.2510 are probably complete so a correction, back to at least 1.1768 (former 4th wave price extreme) is expected. As the correction plays out this week, I'll look to identify the top. A top may be in place now as the rally from 1.1475 is corrective and the USDCAD reversed from the former 4th wave extreme (an Elliott guideline). A cautious bearish bias is warranted against 1.1791.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Whereas the EURUSD has yet to exceed its March high of 1.3742, the USDCHF has already dropped below its March low of 1.1157. In other words, minimum expectations have been met for wave Y. So, it is possible (but not probable given the patterns the other USD crosses) that a low is in place. A drop below 1.0976 would expose Fibonacci support at 1.0925.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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