Euro back to 100-Day after filling gape from parabolic move. Dollar/Yen well supported on dips below 96.00. Cable eyes next short-term support by psychological barriers at 1.4000. Dollar/Swiss finds resistance by confluence of SMAs. Dollar/Cad approached long objective; stops trailed to cost. Australian Dollar looks set for resumption of broader downtrend. New Zealand Dollar nears key double top neckline support.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - The sharp setbacks off of 1.3740 have reached and slightly exceeded the 100-Day SMA on Monday with deeper setbacks seen at a minimum towards previous resistance turned support at 1.3070 so that the gap from the parabolic up-move from a couple of weeks ago can be filled. Daily studies are back in neutral territory and from here it remains unclear whether the market will continue to press lower in favor of the overriding downtrend or will look to continue to consolidate. Key levels to watch come in by 1.3300 and 1.3070. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3400

R3

Figure

1.3300

R2

3/30 high

1.3255

R1

3/27 low

Level

Support

Details

1.3070

S1

3/16 high

1.2950

S2

500-Day SMA

1.2930

S3

3/17 low

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - Setbacks have been well supported on Monday with the market initially dropping down to 95.95 but unable to extend any further before sharply reversing back into the 97.00's. There is solid internal range support in the 96.00's and we continue to favor additional upside over the coming days through the 2009 highs at 99.70 and above 100.00. Only back under 95.95 concerns. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

99.00

R3

3/17 high

98.90

R2

3/27 high

98.35

R1

3/30 high

Level

Support

Details

96.90

S1

3/24 low

95.95

S2

3/30 low

95.45

S3

3/23 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - Remains confined to a very prominent bear channel with the latest corrective rally stalling out by the 100-Day SMA to potentially set up the next medium-term lower top at 1.4780 (24Mar high). Look for additional weakness over the coming weeks with an eventual retest and break of the key trend lows at 1.3500 (23Jan low) favored. Only back above 1.4780 negates. Intraday rallies should now be well capped ahead of 1.4320. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4640

R3

3/26 high

1.4495

R2

3/27 high

1.4320

R1

3/30 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4110

S1

3/30 low

1.3965

S2

3/17 low

1.3890

S3

3/16 low

USD/CHF


USD/CHF - The pair was very well supported on the recent dip to 1.1165 (3Mar low) with the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA propping. The risk from here is for a fresh upside extension back towards the range highs by 1.1970 over the coming weeks. Friday's break above 1.1345 confirms bullish bias. However, we would expect to see some initial resistance in the 1.1500's with the 20/50/100-Day SMAs all converging above the figure. The 50-Day SMA comes in at 1.1575 and above here will once again accelerate. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1890

R3

2/20 high

1.1720

R2

3/6 high

1.1575

R1

50-Day SMA

Level

Support

Details

1.1435

S1

3/30 low

1.1345

S2

3/23 high

1.1225

S3

200-Day SMA

USD/CAD


USD/CAD - The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported by channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. Only back under 1.2385 delays. Stops have been trailed to cost to eliminate risk on long position. Position: LONG @1.2365 FOR A 1.2765 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @1.2365.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2800

R3

3/16 high

1.2765

R2

3/17 high

1.2700

R1

Figure

Level

Support

Details

1.2500

S1

Psychological

1.2445

S2

3/27 high

1.2385

S3

3/30 low

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - The market has stalled out by the 78.6% retrace (0.7050) off of the 2009 high-lows and looks to be in the process of rolling back over for a resumption of the broader downtrend. Friday's bearish price action and break below 0.6905 has accelerated declines back towards the 20/100-Day SMAs in the mid-0.6600's. Only above 0.6940 will delay. We will look for opportunities to sell into rallies. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7000

R3

Psychological

0.6940

R2

3/30 high

0.6865

R1

3/27 low

Level

Support

Details

0.6725

S1

3/19 low

0.6675

S2

20-Day SMA

0.6640

S3

100-Day SMA

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - The break to fresh multi-year highs last Thursday appears to have been a false break, with the market reversing course on Friday after failing by the 78.6% fib retrace off of the yearly high-lows. There is now the potential for the formation of an inter-day double top, which if broken by the neckline at 0.5550, would project deeper setbacks to 0.5300 by the 20-Day SMA. The daily RSI has only just broken back under 70 and there is plenty of room for additional pullbacks in the days ahead. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5785

R3

78.6% Fib

0.5705

R2

3/30 high

0.5670

R1

3/27 low

Level

Support

Details

0.5550

S1

3/25low/neckline

0.5530

S2

3/20 low

0.5470

S3

3/18 high

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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Tech Talk - A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)

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Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)

Indicator of the Day - A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)

Cross Country - A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
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Daily Classical - A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
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