Euro back to 100-Day after filling gape from parabolic move. Dollar/Yen well supported on dips below 96.00. Cable eyes next short-term support by psychological barriers at 1.4000. Dollar/Swiss finds resistance by confluence of SMAs. Dollar/Cad approached long objective; stops trailed to cost. Australian Dollar looks set for resumption of broader downtrend. New Zealand Dollar nears key double top neckline support.
EUR/USD - The sharp setbacks off of 1.3740 have reached and slightly exceeded the 100-Day SMA on Monday with deeper setbacks seen at a minimum towards previous resistance turned support at 1.3070 so that the gap from the parabolic up-move from a couple of weeks ago can be filled. Daily studies are back in neutral territory and from here it remains unclear whether the market will continue to press lower in favor of the overriding downtrend or will look to continue to consolidate. Key levels to watch come in by 1.3300 and 1.3070. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/JPY - Setbacks have been well supported on Monday with the market initially dropping down to 95.95 but unable to extend any further before sharply reversing back into the 97.00's. There is solid internal range support in the 96.00's and we continue to favor additional upside over the coming days through the 2009 highs at 99.70 and above 100.00. Only back under 95.95 concerns. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
GBP/USD - Remains confined to a very prominent bear channel with the latest corrective rally stalling out by the 100-Day SMA to potentially set up the next medium-term lower top at 1.4780 (24Mar high). Look for additional weakness over the coming weeks with an eventual retest and break of the key trend lows at 1.3500 (23Jan low) favored. Only back above 1.4780 negates. Intraday rallies should now be well capped ahead of 1.4320. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/CHF - The pair was very well supported on the recent dip to 1.1165 (3Mar low) with the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA propping. The risk from here is for a fresh upside extension back towards the range highs by 1.1970 over the coming weeks. Friday's break above 1.1345 confirms bullish bias. However, we would expect to see some initial resistance in the 1.1500's with the 20/50/100-Day SMAs all converging above the figure. The 50-Day SMA comes in at 1.1575 and above here will once again accelerate. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/CAD - The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported by channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. Only back under 1.2385 delays. Stops have been trailed to cost to eliminate risk on long position. Position: LONG @1.2365 FOR A 1.2765 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @1.2365.
AUD/USD - The market has stalled out by the 78.6% retrace (0.7050) off of the 2009 high-lows and looks to be in the process of rolling back over for a resumption of the broader downtrend. Friday's bearish price action and break below 0.6905 has accelerated declines back towards the 20/100-Day SMAs in the mid-0.6600's. Only above 0.6940 will delay. We will look for opportunities to sell into rallies. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
NZD/USD - The break to fresh multi-year highs last Thursday appears to have been a false break, with the market reversing course on Friday after failing by the 78.6% fib retrace off of the yearly high-lows. There is now the potential for the formation of an inter-day double top, which if broken by the neckline at 0.5550, would project deeper setbacks to 0.5300 by the 20-Day SMA. The daily RSI has only just broken back under 70 and there is plenty of room for additional pullbacks in the days ahead. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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