Euro / Dollar 1.4180 Defines Larger Trend



Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:51:27 -0400



By Jamie Saettele, Senior Currency Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com




-EURUSD bearish below 1.4180; alterate still in play though
-GBPUSD pattern favors bulls
-AUDUSD triangle
-USDJPY large triangle nearing completion

06-16-09-Techs-Piv

Euro / US Dollar
06-16-09-Techs-01

Near term, staying below 1.4181 keeps the trend pointed down and the alternate (in which wave ii is complete at 1.4340) intact.  A rally through there would negate the bearish bias and signal that price is most likely headed above 1.4340 and probably 1.4723 in order to complete an ending diagonal as wave C from 1.2454.  Given the GBPUSD pattern, the bullish scenario is probable.  There is short term support down to 1.3820.

British Pound / US Dollar
06-16-09-Techs-02

Since 1.5800, the GBPUSD has rallied in 5 waves to 1.6626 and declined in 3 waves to 1.6212.  The rally from 1.6212 is a small degree impulse (5 waves) and there is support down to 1.6330. 

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

06-16-09-Techs-03

I wrote last week that “evidence suggests that a triangle or flat is underway from .8269.”  The pair has carved out what looks like the first 3 waves of a triangle and wave d is underway now.  There is resistance in the .8150-.8200 zone. 

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
06-16-09-Techs-04

The NZDUSD rally above .6422 negates the near term bearish bias and warns of additional strength.  However, my focus remains on the longer term structure, especially the rally from .4890, which is a textbook zigzag.  Waves A and C are equal, which is common.  Staying below .6474 keeps the near term trend pointed down. 

US Dollar / Japanese Yen
06-16-09-Techs-05

The triangle continues to play out.  Wave e of the triangle should complete later this week.  There is potential support at 95.  There will be an opportunity to go long the USDJPY soon against 93.50 on anticipation of the terminal thrust that will end above 101.50.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
06-16-09-Techs-06

It is possible that the USDCAD decline from 1.3068 is complete but there remains a competing alternate in which the pair will drop to a new low (below 1.0780) before resuming the larger rally.  The 61.8% of the advance from .9055 is at 1.0417 and is potential support. 

US Dollar / Swiss Franc
06-16-09-Techs-07

The USDCHF pattern is the exact same as the EURUSD (but as the inverse) 5 waves up from 1.0589 suggest that an important low is in place.  Having yet to exceed 1.0990 (3 wave decline from there), favor the upside against 1.0650.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
   
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com

 


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