-EURUSD takes February high; risk moved to 1.2980
-GBPUSD spikes lower to center of range
-AUDUSD and NZDUSD daily MACD turn + first time since December
-USDCAD continues to hold Fibonacci support
Euro / US Dollar
The EURUSD has pushed through both the February high and the 55 day SMA. The minimum target of 1.33 is in sight and risk can be moved to 1.2980. As I've mentioned in recent weeks, the decline from 1.3333 was a diagonal which completed 5 waves down from 1.4723. Diagonals are usually fully retraced. Positive sloping MACD (daily), which has moved into positive territory, favors bulls.
British Pound / US Dollar
A B wave low is in place for the GBPUSD. Rallying through the top of the channel that has contained the decline since 1.50 would bolster the bullish case. Until then, confidence in short term direction is low.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Near term, the AUDUSD is testing a daily high from February at .6650. A rally through there exposes the February high at .6857. Bulls are favored near term as long as price is above .6525. Yesterday, MACD turned from negative to positive on the daily for the first time since mid December.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
The bullish target zone / potential topping area for the NZDUSD is between .5457 (former 4th wave and 50% retracement) and .56 (61.8% retracement). Near term, strength is favored as long as price is above .52. Like the AUDUSD, MACD has turned from negative to positive for the first time since mid December.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
At this point, there are only 3 waves down from the top so a top can not be confirmed. Coming under 97.11 would be evidence that a top is in place. Until then, it is possible that price exceeds 99.72 and tests Fibonacci resistance at 101.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Longer term, if the USDCAD is breaking higher in an impulse as a terminal thrust from a triangle (that had been underway since October), then price needs to remain above 1.2348. The USDCAD has held the 61.8% of 1.2348-1.3068 at 1.2618.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
The fact that a diagonal from 1.13 has not yet been fully retraced makes me skeptical of this move. One possible outcome is an A-B-C flat...wave C would end below 1.1430.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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