Euro continues to weaken; eyes move to 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Yen puts in bearish inside day. Cable recovers after bouncing from 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Swiss well bid but stalls on approach to 1.1500. Dollar/Cad propped ahead of rising trend-line. Australian Dollar puts in daily lower high and lower low. New Zealand Dollar stops trailed on short to eliminate risk.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - Back under pressure on Tuesday with the market now looking for an initial retest of the 100-Day SMA by 1.3165 with a break below to expose the key short-term trend lows by 1.3115. Intraday rallies should now be capped ahead of Tuesday's daily lower high at 1.3420. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3500

R3

Psychological

1.3420

R2

4/7 high

1.3375

R1

10-Day SMA

Level

Support

Details

1.3200

S1

Figure

1.3165

S2

100-Day SMA

1.3115

S3

3/30 low

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - We continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions with the market having finally taken out psychological barriers at 100.00, to expose the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 99.35 delays. Thursday's close above the 200-Day SMA (first time since September 2008) reaffirms bullish outlook. Next key topside resistance comes in by 101.70, the 61.8% fib retrace off of the major 110.70-87.15 move (Aug08-Jan09). Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

102.45

R3

10/20 high

101.70

R2

61.8% Fib

101.45

R1

4/6 high

Level

Support

Details

99.90

S1

4/7 low

99.35

S2

4/3 low

98.40

S3

4/2 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - Gains have stalled out on Monday after failing shy of key short-term resistance by 1.4990 from February 9. Monday's high also coincides with the upper Bollinger, and the market could now be poised for a resumption of the broader downtrend by the loose bear channel top. Tuesday's break below 1.4650 confirms and should accelerate declines. Only back above 1.4960 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4990

R3

2/9 high

1.4850

R2

4/3 high

1.4780

R1

4/7 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4560

S1

100-Day SMA

1.4450

S2

4/2 low

1.4400

S3

Figure

USD/CHF


USD/CHF - Setbacks continue to be very well supported by the 200-day SMA with Monday's bullish outside day showing good follow through on Tuesday. From here we see risks for a resumption of gains back above 1.1500 and through the recent trend highs at 1.1550. Only back under 1.1165 negates outlook and gives reason for pause. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1600

R3

Figure

1.1550

R2

3/30 high

1.1490

R1

4/2 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1345

S1

2/7 low

1.1300

S2

Figure

1.1240

S3

4/6 low

USD/CAD


USD/CAD -The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported ahead of channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. We expect any additional weakness to continue to be supported by the rising trend-line which currently resides by 1.2200. Back above 1.2455 should act as a catalyst for a resumption of the broader up-move. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2615

R3

4/2 high

1.2515

R2

50-Day SMA

1.2485

R1

4/7 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2330

S1

4/7 low

1.2225

S2

4/6 low

1.2190

S3

3/19 high

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - The market has stalled out ahead of the 0.7270, 2009 highs with Friday's bearish doji being followed by Monday's and Tuesday's negative price action. The RSI is now showing a negative divergence and we look today's break back below 0.7060 to accelerate declines back towards 0.6770 over the coming days. Only back above 0.7230 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7270

R3

1/7 09 high

0.7230

R2

4/3 high

0.7170

R1

4/7 high

Level

Support

Details

0.7045

S1

4/7 low

0.6975

S2

4/2 low

0.6855

S3

4/1 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - Daily studies are finally starting to roll over as we had anticipated following the bearish price action. Indeed our short trade was triggered and we have trailed stops to cost to eliminate risk. There is plenty of room for additional setbacks over the coming days with next key support coming in by 0.5635. Look for intraday rallies to now be well capped ahead of 0.5850. Position: SHORT @0.5845 FOR A 0.5530 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @0.5845.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5985

R3

4/6 high

0.5890

R2

4/7 high

0.5850

R1

4/6 low

Level

Support

Details

0.5700

S1

Figure

0.5635

S2

4/2 low

0.5530

S3

4/1 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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