Euro fails to hold early gains; well offered. Dollar/Yen inches closer to key 99.70 highs. Cable pauses for breather following 4 consecutive down days. Dollar/Swiss well supported ahead of 1.1345 previous resistance. Dollar/Cad recovers from early setbacks; stops trailed for profit. Australian Dollar caught in extremely choppy trade. New Zealand Dollar hourly shows potential h&s top.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - Tuesday's bounce is to be expected following the sharp slide off of the 1.3740 highs from 19Mar. The market has been well supported on dips back to the 100-Day SMA and with daily studies now in neutral territory, we retain no short-term bias. However, the broader structure remains grossly bearish and as such, we will continue to look for opportunities to sell into rallies. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3490

R3

3/23 low

1.3415

R2

3/19 low

1.3345

R1

3/31 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3125

S1

20/100 SMAs

1.3070

S2

3/16 high

1.2985

S3

3/18 low

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - Setbacks have been well supported on Monday with the market initially dropping down to 95.95 but unable to extend any further before sharply reversing back above 98.90 today. There is solid internal range support ahead of 97.00 now and we continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions through the 2009 highs at 99.70 and above 100.00 towards the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only back under 97.00 delays. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

100.00

R3

Psychological

99.70

R2

3/5 2009 high

99.40

R1

200-Day SMA

Level

Support

Details

98.35

S1

3/30 high

97.10

S2

3/27 low

96.90

S3

3/24 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - Remains confined to a very prominent bear channel with the latest corrective rally stalling out by the 100-Day SMA to potentially set up the next medium-term lower top at 1.4780 (24Mar high). Look for additional weakness over the coming days with an eventual retest and break of the key trend lows at 1.3500 (23Jan low) favored. Only back above 1.4780 negates. However, with the pair now trading in the middle of the channel, the choppy nature of trade leaves us sidelined until a better opportunity presents itself. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4640

R3

3/26 high

1.4495

R2

3/27 high

1.4360

R1

3/30 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4240

S1

3/31 low

1.4110

S2

3/30 low

1.3965

S3

3/17 low

USD/CHF


USD/CHF - The pair was very well supported on the recent dip to 1.1165 (3Mar low) with the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA propping. The risk from here is for a fresh upside extension back towards the range highs by 1.1970 over the coming weeks. Last Friday's break above 1.1345 confirms bullish bias and any dips should now be supported ahead of this level. The 50-Day SMA comes in at 1.1570 and above here will once again accelerate. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1720

R3

3/6 high

1.1570

R2

50-Day SMA

1.1550

R1

3/30 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1360

S1

3/31 low

1.1345

S2

3/23 high

1.1225

S3

200-Day SMA

USD/CAD


USD/CAD - The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported by channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. Only back under 1.2385 delays. Stops have been trailed to lock profit on long position. Position: LONG @1.2365 FOR A 1.2765 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @1.2490.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2800

R3

3/16 high

1.2765

R2

3/17 high

1.2700

R1

Figure

Level

Support

Details

1.2500

S1

3/31 low

1.2445

S2

3/27 high

1.2385

S3

3/30 low

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - The market has stalled out by the 78.6% retrace (0.7050) off of the 2009 high-lows and looks to be in the process of rolling back over for a resumption of the broader downtrend. Bullish price action on Tuesday is somewhat concerning for bears but we retain our bearish bias while below 0.7000. Back above 0.7000 negates and opens a retest of the 2009 highs by 0.7270. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7145

R3

1/8 high

0.7000

R2

Psychological

0.6960

R1

3/26 low

Level

Support

Details

0.6770

S1

3/30 low

0.6725

S2

3/19 low

0.6705

S3

20-Day SMA

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - The break to fresh multi-year highs last Thursday appears to have been a false break, with the market reversing course on Friday after failing by the 78.6% fib retrace off of the yearly high-lows. There is now the potential for the formation of an hourly head & shoulders top, which if broken by the neckline at 0.5550, would project deeper setbacks to 0.5300. The daily RSI has only just broken back under 70 and there is plenty of room for additional pullbacks in the days ahead. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5805

R3

3/26 high

0.5785

R2

78.6% Fib

0.5735

R1

3/31 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5605

S1

3/31 low

0.5585

S2

3/30 low

0.5550

S3

3/25 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:

Tech Talk - A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)

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Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)

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Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)

Cross Country - A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
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Daily Classical - A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)