-EURUSD supported by Fibonacci
-GBPUSD testing high
-AUDUSd and NZDUSD to new highs
-USDJPY competing triangle count
-USDCAD rolls over from 4th wave resistance
-USDCHF rejected at trendline
Euro / US Dollar
A push above 1.3742 is still required to satisfy the minimum requirement for wave Y, at which time I will expect a top and reversal (objectives are at points from 1.3800 to 1.4200). The near term trend is bullish as long as price is above 1.3250 but there is a count that could lead to a triangle unfolding as wave B from the March high (1.3742). Due to other USD counts, the bullish count seems more probable at this point.
British Pound / US Dollar
The short term GBPUSD pattern is at odds with the other USD crosses, thus confidence is low in direction. There are 5 waves down from 1.5356 which suggests at least one more bear leg. A push above 1.5356 would negate the short term bearish implications. Bigger picture, wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from the 2007 high (2.1160) is probably still underway. 1.5735, the confluence of the 38.2% of the decline from 2.0162 / December 2008 high, seems a likely target. This level intersects with a resistance line at the end of May.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The rally from .6953 is wave v of C. Higher RSI on the 240 minute chart suggests that the top is not yet in place (tops almost always occur with momentum divergence). A small 4th wave may be complete. Structure is bullish above .7245.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
Wave structure along with the RSI condition explained in the AUDUSD analysis favors a new high in the NZDUSD as well. Wave structure is bullish above .5782.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The USDJPY has broken beneath its 2+ month head and shoulders neckline. This development is bearish and even more so in the context of long term wave structure, which suggests a new all time low (below 80). I wrote last week though that I want to urge caution as the pair approaches 93.50. The circled area could still be a triangle in the X wave position. With this in mind, bears may want to lighten up. With the USDJPY over 100 pips off of its low today, the triangle count gains some traction.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
I wrote the last few days that 5 waves down from 1.2510 are probably complete so a correction, back to at least 1.1768 (former 4th wave price extreme) is expected. As the correction plays out this week, I'll look to identify the top. A top may be in place now as the rally from 1.1475 is overlapping (corrective) and the USDCAD reversed from the former 4th wave extreme (an Elliott guideline). There is short term resistance from 1.1720 to 1.1750.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Whereas the EURUSD has yet to exceed its March high of 1.3742, the USDCHF has already dropped below its March low of 1.1157. In other words, minimum expectations have been met for wave Y. So, it is possible (but not probable given the patterns the other USD crosses) that a low is in place. Near term, USDHCF strength has been thwarted by a trendline drawn off of April and May highs. A drop below 1.0976 would expose Fibonacci support at 1.0925.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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