Euro extends gains and considers test of channel resistance. Dollar/Yen finally breaks below 50-Day SMA to accelerate declines. Cable still locked in choppy directionless trade. Dollar/Swiss long triggered at 1.1400; target 1.1740. Dollar/Cad setbacks seen limited from here. Australian Dollar well capped by 200-Day SMA. New Zealand Dollar rallies not seen lasting.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - The overall outlook remains unchanged and continues to favor USD strength in the days ahead. The current rebound is still classified as corrective and a closer look at the daily chart shows the market locked in a bear channel. As such, we look for any gains to now be limited to falling trend-line resistance in the mid-1.3300's with only a break back above 1.3400 delaying outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3585

R3

4/6 high

1.3515

R2

4/2 high

1.3395

R1

4/13 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3165

S1

4/23 high

1.3115

S2

4/24 low

1.3035

S3

4/22 high

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - The recent break below the 50-Day SMA delays hopes for additional recovery back above 100.00 and now opens the door for deeper setbacks over the coming days towards the 95.00 area. However, trade remains extremely choppy and we do not rule out the possibility of a reversal into the early week back to the upside. Key levels to watch above and below come in by 98.15 and 95.65. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

98.90

R3

4/21 high

98.45

R2

4/23 high

98.15

R1

4/24 high

Level

Support

Details

96.65

S1

4/24 low

95.95

S2

3/30 low

95.65

S3

3/12 low

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - No reason to be taking positions at current levels with the market caught in the middle of a very choppy range. Our bias however is for an eventual resumption of the broader downtrend to be confirmed on a break back below 1.4395 which should then open a fresh downside extension exposing next key support by 1.4110 (30Mar low). Any rallies should be well capped below 1.4820, but only a sustained break back above 1.5000 would be required to shift outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4945

R3

4/17 high

1.4820

R2

4/20 high

1.4775

R1

4/24 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4575

S1

4/24 low

1.4500

S2

Psychological

1.4395

S3

4/22 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - Although the pullback this week has been quite severe, with the market trading from 1.1740 down 1.1350 thus far, our outlook remains constructive with the pair testing some rising trend-line support, and the 200-Day SMA which has proved to be a formidable buoy. A series of higher highs and higher lows over the past several weeks leaves us projecting yet another higher low in the mid-1.1300's ahead of the next upside extension back above 1.1740. Our long recommendation from Thursday has triggered and we target a move back towards 1.1740 over the coming days. Position: LONG @1.1400 FOR A 1.1740 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.1280.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1600

R3

4/22 low

1.1530

R2

4/24 high

1.1455

R1

4/17 low

Level

Support

Details

1.1345

S1

200-Day SMA

1.1305

S2

4/13 low

1.1240

S3

4/6 low

USD/CAD

USD/CAD - Despite the sharp pullbacks seen on Thursday, the overall structure still remains quite constructive with the market posting a series of medium-term higher lows over the past several months. A fresh higher low is now sought out by 1.1980 (16Apr low) ahead of the next major upside extension back above 1.3065 over the coming weeks. As such, we have bought into the current pullback to the 78.6% fib retrace off of the 1.1980-1.2510 move. Position: LONG @1.2100 FOR A 1.2500 OBJECTIVE, STOP 1.1950. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back above 1.2150. If the market fails to break above 1.2150 however, we will exit the position on the NY close Friday.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2510

R3

4/21 high

1.2325

R2

4/21 low

1.2270

R1

4/24 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2075

S1

4/24 low

1.2000

S2

Psychological

1.1980

S3

4/16 low

AUD/USD

AUD/USD - The market continues to chop around within a very broad 0.6000-0.7300 range dating back to October 2008. The overall structure remains grossly bearish and given the proximity to the range highs, we like the idea of looking for opportunities to be short the pair in anticipation of retest of the range lows at minimum. The 200-Day SMA has managed to cap rallies over the past several days and we look for the longer-term SMA to once again cap by current levels. A break back below 0.7100 should help to accelerate declines. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7360

R3

10/7 high

0.7320

R2

4/16 2009 high

0.7255

R1

4/20 high

Level

Support

Details

0.7105

S1

4/24 low

0.7000

S2

4/22 low

0.6955

S3

4/20 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD -
The pair has benefitted from some decent gains on Friday with the market rallying back above 0.5700 thus far. However, the current rally is not expected to last with a lower top sought out below 0.5985 (6Apr high), ideally in the 0.5700 area ahead of renewed selling. Look for the 20-Day SMA to cap with a break back below 0.5600 to reaffirm outlook and accelerate declines back towards initial support at 0.5485. Only a close back above the 20-Day SMA concerns. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5985

R3

4/6 high

0.5825

R2

4/16 high

0.5735

R1

20-Day SMA

Level

Support

Details

0.5600

S1

4/24 low

0.5485

S2

4/20 low

0.5435

S3

50-Day SMA

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:

Tech Talk - A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)

Morning Slices - Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes Trade of the Day).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)

Indicator of the Day - A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)

Cross Country - A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
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Scandi Daily - A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact Nordic@fxcm.com if you would like to be added to distribution.)
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Daily Classical - A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)