Euro rallies stall out by 61.8% fib retracement. Dollar/Yen to fresh 2009 highs; stalls ahead of 100.00. Cable poised for close well above 100-Day SMA; exposes 1.4990. Dollar/Swiss well propped on dips in the low 1.1300s as expected. Dollar/Cad profits booked as trailing stop hit; bullish outlook unchanged. Australian Dollar considers major double bottom prospects. New Zealand Dollar dashes hopes for hourly h&s top; stalls by 78.6% fib.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - The market has finally broken out from the latest sideways trade, surging above the recent consolidation highs at 1.3345 into the 1.3500's thus far. The 61.8% fib retracement off of the 1.3740-1.3115 move comes in by 1.3500 and we would expect to see some pullback from here with the market still caught in some broader directionless trade. Next key level to watch above comes in at 1.3595 (27Mar high), while a break back below 1.3220 would be required to take the short-term pressure off of the topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3740

R3

3/23 high

1.3650

R2

3/25 high

1.3595

R1

3/27 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3345

S1

3/31 high

1.3220

S2

4/2 low

1.3115

S3

3/30 low

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - Fresh 2009 highs on Thursday to 99.90 and just shy of critical psychological barriers at 100.00 ahead of the latest minor setbacks. We continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions beyond 100.00 and towards the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 98.20 delays. The 200-Day SMA comes in by 99.20 and the market now contemplates the first close above the longer-term moving average since September 2008. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

101.00

R3

Figure

100.60

R2

11/4 high

100.00

R1

Psychological

Level

Support

Details

98.40

S1

4/2 low

98.20

S2

4/1 low

97.10

S3

3/27 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - Although recent price action would suggest that we could be in the process of carving out a material base, we are not convinced just yet and still see the market locked in a more significant bear trend. A break back above 1.4990 (9Feb high) would be required to shift us into the bullish camp and until then, we continue to look for opportunities to sell into rallies in anticipation of a resumption of setbacks. The pair is however looking to close back above the 100-day SMA which could open the door for a direct retest of 1.4990 into Friday. We had issued a sell recommendation for Thursday at 1.4820 but as of yet the trade has not triggered. The recommendation expires on the New York close at 5pm ET. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4990

R3

2/9 high

1.4840

R2

Upper Bollinger

1.4780

R1

3/24 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4565

S1

100-Day SMA

1.4450

S2

4/2 low

1.4375

S3

3/31 high

USD/CHF


USD/CHF - Setbacks have found support for now as expected in the low 1.1300's which acts as previous range resistance turned support. From here we see risks for a resumption of gains back above 1.1500 and through the recent trend highs at 1.1550. A confluence of moving averages in the 1.1500's initially capped rallies but the next attempt to the topside should easily exceed the SMAs. Only back under 1.1165 negates outlook and gives reason for pause. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1565

R3

50-Day SMA

1.1550

R2

3/30 high

1.1490

R1

4/2 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1300

S1

Figure

1.1240

S2

200-Day SMA

1.1165

S3

3/19 range lows

USD/CAD


USD/CAD - Our long trade was finally stopped for a nice profit on Thursday following the sharp slide back into the 1.2300's. However, our outlook remains unchanged. The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported by channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. We expect any additional weakness into Friday to be well supported by the 78.6% fib retracement off of the latest 1.2190-1.2715 move which comes in by 1.2300. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2655

R3

3/31 high

1.2575

R2

20-Day SMA

1.2500

R1

3/31 low

Level

Support

Details

1.2300

S1

78.6% minor fib

1.2265

S2

3/27 low

1.2190

S3

3/19 high

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - Today's price action changes the picture a bit with the prospect of a major double bottom in the pair coming back into play. The neckline comes in by the 2009 highs at 0.7270 (7Jan high) with a break above to accelerate and potentially expose a measured move double bottom objective back above 0.8000. However, calling for a major bottom is still pre-mature and we are just as likely to see a test of the 0.7270 highs and subsequent failure back into the prominent range that has defined trade for the past several months. At a very minimum though, we would expect to see a test of 0.7270 over the coming sessions. We may look to sell a failure in this area with daily studies still looking overbought. Stay tuned. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7360

R3

10/7 high

0.7270

R2

1/7 09 high

0.7200

R1

4/2 high

Level

Support

Details

0.7095

S1

3/24 high

0.6975

S2

4/2 low

0.6855

S3

4/1 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - Any hopes for a head & shoulders top have been dashed on Thursday with the market accelerating to the upside to clear key resistance by 0.5805, reaching 0.5840 ahead of the latest minor setbacks. Thursday's highs coincide with the 78.6% fib retracement off of the 0.6085-0.4895 (Dec-Mar) move and this is the last chance for a reversal before the likelihood of a full 100% retracement to 0.6085. Back above 0.5840 should open a direct retest of the 2009 highs which come in at 0.6035, while failure to do so will put the focus back on the downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.6035

R3

1/7 09 high

0.5900

R2

1/12 high

0.5840

R1

4/2 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5735

S1

3/31 high

0.5635

S2

4/2 low

0.5585

S3

3/30-31 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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