•Euro H&S top triggers and exposes pullback to 200-Day SMA
•Dollar/Yen testing Ichimoku clod support
•Cable still locked in rare up and down trading sequence
•Dollar/Swiss sharply reverse course but structure still bearish

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - The market is starting to show signs of rolling over after breaking below the neckline of an hourly Head & Shoulders topping formation that could project setbacks towards 1.3400 over the coming days. Ultimately however, we still see scope for additional upside before the next major USD bull run and prefer to look to buy on dips in anticipation of a break above 1.3740. The 200-Day SMA comes in the low 1.3400's as well which should strengthen case for solid support zone on dips to the figure. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3740

R3

3/19 high

1.3725

R2

5/13 high

1.3665

R1

5/14 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3475

S1

5/7 high

1.3420

S2

200-Day SMA

1.3340

S3

5/8 low

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - Continues to extend declines and has now broken back below psychological barriers by 95.00. While scope exists for additional setbacks over the coming days, we see pullbacks limited to the 93.55-94.15 area. Below 93.15 however will open the door for a more considerable drop potentially back towards the key longer-term trend lows by 87.15. Above 96.20 is now required to take pressure off of the downside. It is also worth noting that the pair is currently testing the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

96.70

R3

5/13 high

96.20

R2

5/15 high

95.90

R1

5/14 high

Level

Support

Details

94.15

S1

3/20 low

93.55

S2

3/19 low

93.00

S3

Figure

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - Market price action remains extremely choppy with the pair failing to show any follow through from previous daily momentum. Since last Wednesday, it has been up-down-up-down-up-down-up-down. We retain a mildly bullish bias and given the proximity to the 2009 highs from early January, we see no reason why this level won't be tested over the coming sessions. A break back below 1.5060 will however delay the recovery structure. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.5375

R3

1/8 2009 High

1.5350

R2

5/1 high

1.5300

R1

Figure

Level

Support

Details

1.5135

S1

5/15 low

1.5060

S2

5/14 low

1.4980

S3

5/5 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - Some very interesting price action in the pair with all relevant moving averages coiling, a sign that we could be nearing a major breakout. Our bias is for a major upside break but we can not rule out the possibility for additional setbacks towards the 1.0865 area before the rally occurs. Any dips to 1.0865 over the coming days will be used as a buy opportunity. Price action has been extremely constructive on Friday but the market will need to break back above 1.1450 to officially take the pressure off of the downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1425

R3

5/7 high

1.1340

R2

5/8 high

1.1245

R1

5/5 low

Level

Support

Details

1.1125

S1

5/14 high

1.1025

S2

5/14 low

1.0975

S3

5/13 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

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