• Euro locked in bearish consolidation
• Dollar/Yen bouncing by lower end of well defined range
• Cable needs to break below 1.6185 to accelerate declines
• Dollar/Swiss clears key topside barriers to reaffirm basing prospects

6-25-09Classical-01

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - The market has been locked in some sideways trade since breaking below the neckline of a major head & shoulders top formation on June 15. However, we classify the recent price action as a bearish consolidation and look for an eventual break lower below 1.3850 to confirm our bearish outlook and expose the measured move h&s objective lower down by 1.3250. A lower top is now sought out by Wednesday's 1.4140 highs, with only a break above 1.4140 to negate and give reason for pause. Position: SHORT @1.4010 FOR OPEN OBJECTIVE; REVISED STOP @1.4010.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4140

R3

6/24 high

1.4100

R2

Figure

1.4015

R1

20-Day SMA

Level

Support

Details

1.3890

S1

6/24 low

1.3825

S2

6/22 low

1.3750

S3

6/16 low

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - For now, it looks like the market is content on trading within a broad range, loosely defined between the 94.00-100.00 area. With the price now gravitating to the bottom of the range, there is scope for additional weakness down towards the 93.55-85 area. However, setbacks have been well supported inter-day by 95.00 and a bullish reversal day on Wednesday could warn of basing. Back above 97.20 will be required to take pressure off of the downside. Strategy: STAND ASIDE; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

97.90

R3

6/16 high

97.20

R2

6/19 high

96.60

R1

6/25 high

Level

Support

Details

95.60

S1

6/25 low

94.90

S2

6/23 low

94.45

S3

6/1 low

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - The breakdown that we have been anticipating over the past several days is taking longer to materialize, with the market caught in some sideways consolidation. However, any rallies have been well capped below the 2009, 1.6665 lows, with failed attempts resulting in lower tops by 1.6620 and most recently by 1.6605 on Wednesday. Key support comes in by the consolidation lows at 1.6185 with a break and close below to accelerate declines towards the critical 1.5800 neckline of what would be a very awkward topping formation. Only back above 1.6600 would negate and give reason for shift in outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO SELL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.6665

R3

6/3 2009 high

1.6620

R2

6/11 high

1.6470

R1

6/25 high

Level

Support

Details

1.6185

S1

6/18 low

1.6085

S2

6/4 low

1.5940

S3

6/5 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - We had been writing of a potential formation of an inverse head & shoulders pattern formation on the daily, following the establishment of a 2009 low by 1.0590 on June 2. Although this didn't play out as we had hoped, the market was successfully propped ahead of 1.0590 on Wednesday, before a jackknife reversal back above the 1.1000 neckline. The result, has been the formation of more of a double bottom-like pattern which confirms the prospect for medium-term basing and opens the door for fresh upside over the coming weeks back towards the 1.1500 area. Any setbacks are now expected to be well supported in the mid-1.0700's. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO BUY.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1270

R3

5/18 high

1.1130

R2

5/20 high

1.1060

R1

5/21 high/50-Day

Level

Support

Details

1.0920

S1

6/25 low

1.0760

S2

6/18 low

1.0650

S3

6/11 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

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