- Euro breaks down through 1.3000 barriers
- Dollar/Yen long triggered with intraday studies oversold
- Cable extends declines back below 100-Day SMA
- Dollar/Swiss seen back towards 1.1835 over coming session
- Dollar/Cad races higher and looks for push back above 1.2500
- Australian Dollar collapses to suggest bear trend resumption
- New Zealand Dollar seen lower after taking out key short-term support

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - The market has broken back below key psychological barriers at 1.3000 with setbacks extending into the 1.2800's thus far. Next support comes in by 1.2835 with a break below to open a deeper drop towards 1.2730 (12Mar lows) which also coincides with the 78.6% fib retrace off of the 1.2455-1.3740 move. Any rallies are now seen well capped ahead of 1.3090 previous support now turned resistance. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3650

R3

3/25 high

1.3595

R2

3/27 high

1.3515

R1

4/2 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2835

S1

3/16 low

1.2800

S2

Figure

1.2730

S3

3/12 low/78.6%

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - Any setbacks are seen limited with the overall structure still favoring additional upside back towards the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00 over the coming days. There is some decent internal range support in the 98.00 area and only a close below will shift our short-term outlook. Position: LONG @98.00 FOR A 100.45 OBJECTIVE, STOP @96.80. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back above 98.50. If 98.50 not broken, position to be closed out at NY close (5pm ET) on Monday.

Level

Resistance

Details

99.75

R3

4/17 high

99.45

R2

4/20 high

98.70

R1

4/17 low

Level

Support

Details

97.20

S1

50-Day SMA

96.90

S2

3/24 low

96.60

S3

61.8% Minor Fib

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - Has been sold heavily since topping out just over 1.5000 last week with the declines accelerating on Monday below the 100-Day SMA thus far to 1.4500. The latest break of 1.4580 now opens the door for additional weakness over the coming days with next key support by the 50-Day SMA at 1.4400 to be tested. Below 1.4400 then exposes 1.4110 further down. Rallies should be well capped ahead of 1.4820 with only a break back above to delay. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.4820

R3

4/20 high

1.4755

R2

4/17 low

1.4700

R1

Figure

Level

Support

Details

1.4500

S1

4/20 low

1.4400

S2

50-Day SMA

1.4275

S3

4/1 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - The positive momentum from Friday's impressive gains has carried over into Monday with the major breaking back above 1.1700 barriers to 1.1740 thus far. Intraday setbacks are now seen supported ahead of 1.1640, with next key topside resistance coming in by 1.1835. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1900

R3

Figure

1.1835

R2

3/18 high

1.1740

R1

4/20 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1640

S1

Figure

1.1550

S2

50-Day SMA

1.1500

S3

Psychological

USD/CAD

USD/CAD -The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported by psychological support at 1.2000. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.1980 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar over the coming weeks. Any weakness should now be well supported ahead of 1.2120 with next key topside resistance coming in at 1.2485. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2575

R3

4/1 low

1.2485

R2

4/7 high

1.2405

R1

4/9 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2300

S1

4/13 high

1.2245

S2

4/14 high

1.2190

S3

4/15 high

AUD/USD

AUD/USD - Sharp pullbacks on Monday have shifted the outlook with the latest break back below 0.7035 ending prospects for a fresh higher low and opening the door for a potential resumption of the broader downtrend. Next key support comes in by 0.6770 and we look for a test of this level over the coming sessions. Only back above 0.7255 will take the pressure off of the downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7255

R3

4/20 high

0.7140

R2

4/16 low

0.7095

R1

20-Day SMA

Level

Support

Details

0.6905

S1

3/25 low

0.6825

S2

Lower Bollinger

0.6770

S3

3/30 low

NZD/USD

NZD/USD - The decline from the early April 0.5985 highs has accelerated on Monday with the market taking out next key support by 0.5530 to 0.5490 thus far. Daily studies still show room to run and we could be in the process of a resumption of the broader downtrend. Next key support comes in by the 100-Day SMA at 0.5460 with a break below to open a more significant drop back towards 0.5255 over the coming days. Rallies should now be well capped ahead of 0.5710. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.5710

R3

4/20 high

0.5650

R2

4/17 low

0.5600

R1

Figure

Level

Support

Details

0.5460

S1

100-Day SMA

0.5400

S2

50-Day SMA

0.5345

S3

3/16 high

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:

Tech Talk - A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)

Morning Slices - Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes Trade of the Day).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)

Indicator of the Day - A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)

Cross Country - A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)

Scandi Daily - A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact Nordic@fxcm.com if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)

Daily Classical - A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)