Euro stalls ahead of 1.3600 and puts in bearish outside day. Dollar/Yen extends gains; eyes key 61.8% fib retrace. Cable stalls by Upper Bollinger and ahead of 1.4990. Dollar/Swiss bounces from 200-Day SMA; bullish outside day. Dollar/Cad well propped by rising channel support. Australian Dollar tracks lower after bearish doji formation. New Zealand Dollar showing potential for bearish gravestone doji.
EUR/USD - Monday's rally has stalled out just shy of the 78.6% fib retrace off of the 1.3740-1.3115 move to open the latest sharp pullback, setting up a bearish outside day. While daily studies are mixed and offer no clear directional bias, Monday's bearish set-up suggests that deeper setbacks are in the cards. Look for a move back towards 1.3220 over the coming sessions. Only back above 1.3585 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/JPY - We continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions with the market having finally taken out psychological barriers at 100.00, to expose the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 99.35 delays. Thursday's close above the 200-Day SMA (first time since September 2008) reaffirms bullish outlook. Next key topside resistance comes in by 101.70, the 61.8% fib retrace off of the major 110.70-87.15 move (Aug08-Jan09). Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
GBP/USD - Gains have stalled out on Monday after failing shy of key short-term resistance by 1.4990 from February 9. Monday's high also coincides with the upper Bollinger, and the market could now be poised for a resumption of the broader downtrend by the loose bear channel top. Look for a break below 1.4650 to confirm and accelerate declines. Only back above 1.4960 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/CHF - Setbacks continue to be very well supported by the 200-day SMA with a bullish outside day now in the works for Monday after the pair also managed to bounce from the 78.6% fib retrace off of the 1.1165-1.1550 move. From here we see risks for a resumption of gains back above 1.1500 and through the recent trend highs at 1.1550. Only back under 1.1165 negates outlook and gives reason for pause. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
USD/CAD -The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported ahead of channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. We expect any additional weakness to continue to be supported by the rising trend-line which currently resides by 1.2200. Back above 1.2455 should act as a catalyst for a resumption of the broader up-move. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
AUD/USD - The market has stalled out ahead of the 0.7270, 2009 highs with Friday's bearish doji being followed by Monday's negative price action. The RSI is now showing a negative divergence and we look for a break back below 0.7060 to confirm bearish outlook and accelerate declined back towards 0.6770 over the coming days. Only back above 0.7230 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
NZD/USD - Daily studies are highly overbought and warn of an imminent correction. Monday's bearish gravestone doji formation confirms likelihood for material pullback over the coming days, and we recommend looking to establish short positions below 0.5850 in anticipation of the pullback towards 0.5530. Only back above 0.5985 negates. Strategy: SELL @0.5845 FOR A 0.5530 OBJECTIVE, STOP @0.6010
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org and you will be added to the distribution list.
Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:
Tech Talk - A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)
Morning Slices - Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes Trade of the Day).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)
Indicator of the Day - A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)
Cross Country - A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)
Scandi Daily - A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact Nordic@fxcm.com if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)
Daily Classical - A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)