Euro stalls ahead of 1.3600 and puts in bearish outside day. Dollar/Yen extends gains; eyes key 61.8% fib retrace. Cable stalls by Upper Bollinger and ahead of 1.4990. Dollar/Swiss bounces from 200-Day SMA; bullish outside day. Dollar/Cad well propped by rising channel support. Australian Dollar tracks lower after bearish doji formation. New Zealand Dollar showing potential for bearish gravestone doji.

EUR/USD


EUR/USD - Monday's rally has stalled out just shy of the 78.6% fib retrace off of the 1.3740-1.3115 move to open the latest sharp pullback, setting up a bearish outside day. While daily studies are mixed and offer no clear directional bias, Monday's bearish set-up suggests that deeper setbacks are in the cards. Look for a move back towards 1.3220 over the coming sessions. Only back above 1.3585 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3650

R3

3/25 high

1.3585

R2

4/6 high

1.3515

R1

4/2 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3345

S1

3/31 high

1.3280

S2

20-Day SMA

1.3220

S3

4/2 low

USD/JPY


USD/JPY - We continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions with the market having finally taken out psychological barriers at 100.00, to expose the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 99.35 delays. Thursday's close above the 200-Day SMA (first time since September 2008) reaffirms bullish outlook. Next key topside resistance comes in by 101.70, the 61.8% fib retrace off of the major 110.70-87.15 move (Aug08-Jan09). Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

102.45

R3

10/20 high

102.00

R2

Figure

101.45

R1

4/6 high

Level

Support

Details

100.00

S1

Psychological

99.35

S2

4/3 low

98.40

S3

4/2 low

GBP/USD


GBP/USD - Gains have stalled out on Monday after failing shy of key short-term resistance by 1.4990 from February 9. Monday's high also coincides with the upper Bollinger, and the market could now be poised for a resumption of the broader downtrend by the loose bear channel top. Look for a break below 1.4650 to confirm and accelerate declines. Only back above 1.4960 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.5000

R3

Psychological

1.4990

R2

2/9 high

1.4960

R1

4/6 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4650

S1

4/3 low

1.4565

S2

100-Day SMA

1.4450

S3

4/2 low

USD/CHF


USD/CHF - Setbacks continue to be very well supported by the 200-day SMA with a bullish outside day now in the works for Monday after the pair also managed to bounce from the 78.6% fib retrace off of the 1.1165-1.1550 move. From here we see risks for a resumption of gains back above 1.1500 and through the recent trend highs at 1.1550. Only back under 1.1165 negates outlook and gives reason for pause. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1550

R3

3/30 high

1.1490

R2

4/2 high

1.1410

R1

4/6 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1300

S1

Figure

1.1240

S2

4/6 low

1.1165

S3

3/19 range lows

USD/CAD


USD/CAD -The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported ahead of channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. We expect any additional weakness to continue to be supported by the rising trend-line which currently resides by 1.2200. Back above 1.2455 should act as a catalyst for a resumption of the broader up-move. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.2655

R3

3/31 high

1.2575

R2

20-Day SMA

1.2455

R1

4/3 high

Level

Support

Details

1.2300

S1

Figure

1.2225

S2

4/6 low

1.2190

S3

3/19 high

AUD/USD


AUD/USD - The market has stalled out ahead of the 0.7270, 2009 highs with Friday's bearish doji being followed by Monday's negative price action. The RSI is now showing a negative divergence and we look for a break back below 0.7060 to confirm bearish outlook and accelerate declined back towards 0.6770 over the coming days. Only back above 0.7230 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

0.7360

R3

10/7 high

0.7270

R2

1/7 09 high

0.7230

R1

4/3 high

Level

Support

Details

0.7060

S1

4/3 low

0.6975

S2

4/2 low

0.6855

S3

4/1 low

NZD/USD


NZD/USD - Daily studies are highly overbought and warn of an imminent correction. Monday's bearish gravestone doji formation confirms likelihood for material pullback over the coming days, and we recommend looking to establish short positions below 0.5850 in anticipation of the pullback towards 0.5530. Only back above 0.5985 negates. Strategy: SELL @0.5845 FOR A 0.5530 OBJECTIVE, STOP @0.6010

Level

Resistance

Details

0.6085

R3

12/18 high

0.6035

R2

1/7 09 high

0.5985

R1

4/6 high

Level

Support

Details

0.5850

S1

4/6 low

0.5770

S2

4/3 low

0.5735

S3

3/31 high

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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