-GBPUSD back to at leat 1.4650
-AUDUSD failing ahead of key level
-NZDUSD structure bearish below .6090
-USDCAD bullish above 1.22
Euro / US Dollar
My working assumption is that a wave 2 high is in place at 1.3740 (within what will be a 5 wave decline from 1.4723). It is quite possible that 1.3740 will be the high for the year. The rally from 1.3111 is in 3 waves and has stalled at the 61.8% of the decline from 1.3740. Price is also resisted by a resistance line. Coming under 1.3350 would bolster the bearish outlook.
British Pound / US Dollar
Price action since 1.35 is a 4th wave that will end as either a triangle or flat. I wrote last week that since it looks as though the EURUSD long term decline has resumed, a triangle (see arrows) is more likely. IF a triangle is underway, then wave D is working lower towards 1.40 now. The recent rally brings the flat scenario back into the picture. Still, even a small correction, back to at least 1.4650, seems likely.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Price action in the AUDUSD since the October 2008 low has carved out what could be a head and shoulders continuation pattern. This is pure speculation at this point but the ‘look' is there. For the last 3 days, the pair has been testing the left shoulder level. Staying below .7050 keeps the short term trend pointed lower. I see 5 waves down from .7093, a top in AUDUSD will be confirmed. A push through .7275 could complete a complex correction from .60. Either way, I am looking to go short.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
I wrote last week that there is a count in the NZDUSD that calls for a wave 2 high to form before .6090. If this is to occur, then a high should form within the next few days. Short term structure favors a push above .5753 in order to complete wave c of an expanded flat. The short term bearish structure (head and shoulders) is no longer and Kiwi looks poised to take out last week's high. Still, the larger structure is bearish as long as price is below .6090 (5 waves down from there.)
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The USDJPY has traded through the 200 day SMA (although there is no daily close above the SMA yet) and focus is now on the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 110.71 at 101. Remember, the long term wave structure is bearish, as evidenced by the break from the triangle on the monthly chart. However, there are bullish implications from a short term head and shoulders inverse pattern, which suggests that 101 will be reached. Only a drop below 98.19 would begin to suggest that a top is in place.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
I wrote yesterday that the short term USDCAD pattern suggests that we should be long, albeit at a better price. There are 5 waves up from 1.22, therefore expect a corrective decline over the next few days back to at least 1.25. Look to positions long against 1.22 in anticipation of a break to yearly highs. The short term pattern has played out as expected. The trend is considered up as long as price is above 1.2197.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Like the EURUSD, the USDCHF may have resumed its longer term trend towards USD strength. Near term, bulls are in control as long as price is above 1.2222. Staying above 1.1157 keeps the bullish count on track.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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