•Euro gains stall out just shy of 200-Day SMA
•Dollar/Yen price action very choppy; stay sidelined
•Cable looking to put in bearish reversal day; below 1.4990
•Dollar/Swiss well propped ahead of 1.1245

2009.05.07_classical_1

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - Gains have stalled out just shy of the 200-Day SMA on Thursday with the market reaching 1.3470 ahead of the latest minor pullback. The last time the pair close above the 200-Day SMA was back on August 7, 2008, so a close above would be viewed as a significant development. Above the 200-Day at 1.3475 opens an acceleration towards 1.3585 which ultimately guards against the key trend highs at 1.3740. A break back below 1.3245 will now be required to take the pressure off of the topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3585

R3

4/6 high

1.3500

R2

Psychological

1.3475

R1

200-Day SMA

Level

Support

Details

1.3245

S1

5/6 low

1.3190

S2

4/30 low

1.3120

S3

4/29 low

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - Daily studies are mixed and the market continues to chop around with no clear directional bias. Key levels to watch above and below now come in by 99.75 and 97.95 respectively but we do not recommend taking any positions at until a clearer opportunity presents. Our strategy will be to wait for studies to either show overbought or oversold before looking to enter the market. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

101.45

R3

4/6 2009 High

100.00

R2

Psychological

99.75

R1

5/7 high

Level

Support

Details

98.25

S1

5/7 low

97.95

S2

5/6 low

97.15

S3

4/30 low

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - Gains have stalled out on Thursday with the market posting a fresh higher high by 1.5200 before reversing quite sharply back below 1.5000. At this time 1.4980 is still supporting, but a break below this level would set up a very bearish reversal day and likely open the door for a major corrective pullback and potential resumption of the broader downtrend. Inability to break below 1.4980 would however keep the focus on a retest of the 2009 highs by 1.5375. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.5375

R3

1/8 2009 High

1.5300

R2

Figure

1.5200

R1

5/7 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4980

S1

5/5 low

1.4755

S2

5/1 low

1.4705

S3

4/30 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - Despite the latest break below the much talked about 200-Day SMA, we are still reluctant to adopt a bearish view, with the market very much locked in a choppy multi-day range trade. Setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.1165 with only a sustained break below the latter to ultimately shift our bias. A break back above 1.1450 is required to take pressure off of the downside while below 1.1245 opens fresh drop. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1500

R3

Psychological

1.1450

R2

4/29 high

1.1425

R1

5/7 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1245

S1

5/5 low

1.1165

S2

3/19 low

1.1110

S3

1/16 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

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