•Euro gains stall out but retest of 200-Day SMA by 1.3500 favored
•Dollar/Yen consolidates but could be looking to top out
•Cable seen back to test 2009 highs at 1.5375
•Dollar/Swiss takes well supported ahead of 1.1165 range lows

2009.05.05_classical_1

EUR/USD

EUR/USD - The market has shown some signs of stalling on Tuesday with gains extending to 1.3440 ahead of the latest minor pullbacks. However, daily studies now show more room to run with a test of the 200-Day SMA at 1.3500 seen over the coming sessions. A break of the 200-Day will expose 1.3585 which ultimately guards against the key trend highs by 1.3740. Key support comes in by 1.3195 with a break below required to take the pressure off of the topside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.3585

R3

4/6 high

1.3500

R2

200-Day SMA

1.3440

R1

5/5 high

Level

Support

Details

1.3300

S1

Figure

1.3195

S2

4/30 low

1.3120

S3

4/29 low

USD/JPY

USD/JPY - Daily studies are mixed but price action is starting to look a little toppish after gains stalled out by 99.60 on Friday and Monday. As such our short-term bias is now mildly bearish with a break below 98.50 to likely open a deeper drop back towards 97.15 initially. However, the inside day price action on Tuesday does leave us sidelined for now with a break above 99.60 or below 98.50 required for clearer directional bias. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

100.45

R3

4/14 high

100.00

R2

Psychological

99.60

R1

May1&4 highs

Level

Support

Details

98.50

S1

May1&4 lows

97.95

S2

4/29 high

97.15

S3

4/30 low

GBP/USD

GBP/USD - Has easily broken back above psychological barriers by 1.5000 and daily studies still show plenty of room for additional gains over the coming sessions back towards the 2009 highs from January by 1.5375. However, from there we see the risks for a pullback and resumption of the broader downtrend and as such, will be looking for opportunities to sell on a break above 1.5375. In the interim, setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.4980 with a break below to delay recovery structure. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.5375

R3

1/8 2009 High

1.5200

R2

Figure

1.5165

R1

5/5 high

Level

Support

Details

1.4980

S1

5/5 low

1.4755

S2

5/1 low

1.4705

S3

4/30 low

USD/CHF

USD/CHF - Despite the latest break below the much talked about 200-Day SMA, we are still reluctant to adopt a bearish view, with the market very much locked in a choppy multi-day range trade. Setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.1165 with only a sustained break below the latter to ultimately shift our bias. A break back above 1.1450 is required to take pressure off of the downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

Level

Resistance

Details

1.1525

R3

4/24 high

1.1500

R2

4/29 high

1.1450

R1

4/29 high

Level

Support

Details

1.1240

S1

4/6 low

1.1165

S2

3/19 low

1.1110

S3

1/16 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the distribution list.

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