-EURUSD support near 1.3500
-GBPUSD support below 1.4900
-AUDUSD pivot at.7245
-NZDUSD pivot at.5782
-USDJPY breaks h&s neckline
-USDCHF important low may be in place
Euro / US Dollar
A push above 1.3742 is still required to satisfy the minimum requirement for wave Y, at which time I will expect a top and reversal (objectives are at points from 1.3800 to 1.4200). I published an alert yesterday at the end of New York trading warning that the EURUSD was at risk of a short term top as there were 5 waves completed from 1.3251. A top did indeed register and a bit more weakness is likely prior to a resumption of the rally. Look for support near 1.3490, which intersects with potential trendline support tomorrow. A deeper correction could reach the 61.8% retracement at 1.3251. Again, the larger trend is considered bullish against 1.3251.
British Pound / US Dollar
Bigger picture, wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from the 2007 high (2.1160) is probably still underway. 1.5735, the confluence of the 38.2% of the decline from 2.0162 / December 2008 high, seems a likely target. This level intersects with a resistance line at the end of May. Near term, a corrective decline is probably underway from 1.5356. Fibonacci support intersects a support line at 1.4868 next week. A sharper decline would test the support line before this week is complete. Structure is bullish above 1.4396.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The rally from .6953 is wave v of C and the objective at .7630 has already been reached (which is where wave v of C would equal wave i of C). The 50% retracement of the decline from .9822 at .7693 is giving bulls fits for now but one more high seems likely this week. Higher RSI on the 240 minute chart suggests that the top is not yet in place (tops almost always occur with momentum divergence). Watch the top of the short term Elliott channel for resistance after the AUDUSD breaks to a new high. A small 4th wave is underway now and there is potential support from Fibonacci at .7431. Structure is bullish above .7245.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
Wave structure along with the RSI condition explained in the AUDUSD analysis favors a new high in the NZDUSD as well. Kiwi is putting to test Fibonacci support now. Wave structure is bullish above .5782.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The USDJPY has broken beneath its 2+ month head and shoulders neckline. This development is bearish and even more so in the context of long term wave structure, which suggests a new all time low (below 80). Any rally should prove corrective and resistance begins at 97.00. Risk should be kept to 99.72 although price ideally does not come near that level.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
I wrote the last 2 days that 5 waves down from 1.2510 are probably complete so a correction, back to at least 1.1768 (former 4th wave price extreme) is expected. As the correction plays out this week, I'll look to identify the top. There is no change to the near term outlook.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Whereas the EURUSD has yet to exceed its March high of 1.3742, the USDCHF has already dropped below its March low of 1.1157. In other words, minimum expectations have been met for wave Y. So, it is possible that a low is in place. I'll look for confirmation in the days ahead.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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