EUR/USD Daily Chart:
Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) Analysis
(Please refer daily currency charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. All technical analysis indicators for the weekly EUR/USD outlook are based on the daily forex charts and in some cases 4-hourly charts. The trading strategies and forecast is based on the technical and fundamental outlook)
Euro - US Dollar (EUR/USD) Forecast:
Previous Outlook of EUR/USD:
" Overall, bearish sentiments in Euro zone are once again picking up. On the downside, first support is expected near 1.2860. This may come from the rising short-term support trend line as can be seen in this EUR/USD daily chart. In case the pair breaks below 1.2860 decisively then next support should come near 1.2804. Please note 1.2804 is the low of the volatile sideways move of past 6 weeks. A sustained break below this would indicate the break of this sideways pattern and in that case we would expect further consolidation towards 1.2735/1.2760 range and possibly lower.”
EUR/USD Outlook For This Week:
Please check the relative strengths of recent economic releases and technical indications at following links as the base of this week's forecast of EUR/USD. We recommend to check the economic strength meter on Fundamental Outlook page.
Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) failed just below 55-day resistance and fell further to the low of 1.2690 before closing for the week at 1.2712.
The bearish pressure continues and the currency pair is now slightly above the 200-day moving average support. Our outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish but a decisive break of 200-day moving average support near 1.2775 is critical to expect further downward moves. In case a decisive break below 1.2775/1.2760 range takes place then we would expect further deeper moves towards 1.2605/1.2610 support zone.
Any such a move as mentioned above will represent the 50% retracement of the upward move during July 24th and September 17th. Any strong break below this should make EUR/USD to target the psychological level of 1.2500 or even the 61.8% retracement of the above mentioned move i.e. 1.2473/1.2480 support zone.
On the upside resistances are expected first near 1.2790 and with any break of that near 1.2870. Bothe 22-day and 55-day EMA lines are converging near 1.2870. Any decisive break over this resistance will make our above mentioned outlook neutralize for the near-term.
Not only for the next week but overall the longer term outlook is not bullish. Though the currency pair had broken over the mid-term parallel channel, the recent upward gains have just completed the 38.2% retracement of the downward move during from the beginning of May, 2011 and July 24, 2012 and hence we have been considering the recent upward move (before the current fall) just as a consolidation in the longer perspective.
EUR/USD Trading Strategies:
We have been primarily on the short-selling side till any break of the mentioned 1.2870 does not take place but as mentioned above that at the current level we would wait for a break of 200-day SMA support to target the above mentioned 50% retracement and then possibly 61.8% retracement levels as profit targets.
Considering the price action and the frequently changing sentiments about the development in Euro zone, our positions will be short term. Euro pairs may tend to be very volatile with unexpected moves because of the situation is Euro zone and hence though the stop-loss should not be very tight but should not be very wide either.
(Please join the News Letter to get email alerts when the Forex analysis/forecast is updated. Please also check and share any real time Euro-Dollar Trades in Forum) and current EUR USD market sentiments. We also post EUR/USD Outlook as "EUR/USD Today" in the Forex Blogs.
For short term Forex trading analysis, please refer to daily technical analysis for Euro US Dollar at EUR/USD daily analysis.
There can also be some news or some indications from technical indicators or chart patters which may suggest some major moves. Please check and share such observations about about Euro-Dollar and other currency pairs in the Forex Forum Alerts.
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