Euro-Dollar (EUR/USD)

 

 EUR/USD Daily Chart:

EUR/USD Analysis and Outlook

Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) Analysis

(Please refer daily currency charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. All technical analysis indicators for the weekly EUR/USD forecast are based on the daily forex charts and in some cases 4-hourly charts. The trading strategies and forecast is based on the technical and fundamental outlook)

Euro - US Dollar (EUR/USD) Forecast:

 

Previous Outlook of EUR/USD:

" The bearish pressure continues and the currency pair is now slightly above the 200-day moving average support. Our outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish but a decisive break of 200-day moving average support near 1.2775 is critical to expect further downward moves. In case a decisive break below 1.2775/1.2760 range takes place then we would expect further deeper moves towards 1.2605/1.2610 support zone. On the upside resistances are expected first near 1.2790 and with any break of that near 1.2870. Both 22-day and 55-day EMA lines are converging near 1.2870.” 

EUR/USD Outlook For This Week:

Please check the relative strengths of recent economic releases and technical indications at following links as the base of this week's forecast of EUR/USD. We recommend to check the economic strength meter on Fundamental Outlook page.
EUR/USD Fundamental OutlookEUR/USD Technical Outlook

 

Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) could not break below 200-day moving average support mentioned. The currency pair went as low as 1.2661 but jumped up to 1.2802 and after finding resistance below 22-day EMA, dropped by 112 pip before closing for the week at 1.2742. The movement during the later part of the week has been non-directional.
 

Please check the 200-day moving average support on this daily chart of EURUSD.
 
Though our overall outlook for EUR/USD stays bearish but as we had mentioned during last week that a break of 200-day moving average is critical. Please check this Forex blog post about this. Considering this we stay neutral initially to expect some sideway moves or even some upward correction before another fall takes place. The weekly MACD is indicating bearish sentiments as mentioned on the technical outlook page.
 
On the upside if a break over the recent 1.2802 takes place then some resistance is expected near 1.2835/1.2840. This zone represents the resistance of current 55-day EMA (exponential moving average) as well as the resistance of Kijun line of daily Ichimoku cloud (please check the technical outlook page). Even if EUR/USD manages a break over 1.2840 a very strong resistance is expected in the range of 1.2875/1.2885. This resistance is derived from the previous price actions and previous resistances and supports during October 24th and November 7th.
 
If the above resistances hold and a break of recent 1.2661 takes place then again some support is expected near 1.2640. Please note that the 200-day moving average line has been slopping down and is now near 1.2650. Not only that but the psychological support of approaching 1.2500 level will also start coming over 1.2610. Below 1.2640 the pair may try to target 1.2605/1.2610 which will represent 50% retracement of the upward move during July 24th and September 17th. Anny sustained break below 1.2605 should bring further deeper moves towards 1.2520 but frequent supports should be coming over 1.2560 and 1.2540 because of the psychological support of 1.2500.
 
However, on the upside, if there is any decisive break over 1.2885 then our above outlook will neutralize for the near-term and in that case further upward gains towards the psychological resistance of 1.3000 can be expected.
 
As we have been mentioning, our overall the longer term outlook is not bullish. This is because of the overall debt crisis situation and bearish growth prospects of Euro zone and also technically. Though the currency pair had broken over the mid-term parallel channel, the recent upward gains have just completed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the downward move during from the beginning of May, 2011 and July 24, 2012 and hence we have been considering the earlier upward move (before the current fall) just as a consolidation in the longer perspective. 

EUR/USD Trading Strategies:

We have been primarily on the short-selling side till any break of the mentioned 1.2885 does not take place but as mentioned above that initially we stay neutral at the current level and we would wait for a break of 200-day SMA support to target the above mentioned 50% retracement and then possibly 61.8% retracement levels as profit targets. During such times we may take short-term positions on either side, considering the support and resistance levels mentioned above. The positions will be both short-term and with limited position size.

Considering the price action and the frequently changing sentiments about the development in Euro zone, our positions will be short term. Euro pairs may tend to be very volatile with unexpected moves because of the situation is Euro zone and hence though the stop-loss should not be very tight but should not be very wide either.

Check the new pip value calculator, position size calculator and margin calculation on the upcoming Forex broker module. You may also check the analysis updates in the Forex blog and Forex Forum.

(Please join the News Letter to get email alerts when the Forex analysis/forecast is updated. Please also check and share any real time Euro-Dollar Trades in Forum) and current EUR USD market sentiments. We also post EUR/USD Outlook as "EUR/USD Today" in the Forex Blogs.

For short term Forex trading analysis, please refer to daily technical analysis for Euro US Dollar at EUR/USD daily analysis. 

There can also be some news or some indications from technical indicators or chart patters which may suggest some major moves. Please check and share such observations about about Euro-Dollar and other currency pairs in the Forex Forum Alerts.

EUR/USD Interest Rate Comparision
(For Carry Trade)
Euro interest rate 
0.75%
US Dollar interest rate 
0.25%
Euro-Dollar interest rate comparision 
0.50%

 

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