Euro - U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD)

 

Daily Chart of EURUSD:

EUR/USD Analysis and Outlook

About Euro - US Dollar (EUR/USD) Analysis

(Please refer daily currency charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. All technical analysis indicators for the weekly EUR/USD forecast are based on the daily forex charts and in some cases 4-hourly and even weekly charts. The trading strategies and forecast is based on the technical and fundamental outlook)

Euro - US Dollar (EUR/USD) Forecast:

 

Previous Outlook of EUR/USD:

" 2 Weeks Back: However, if the current support levels hold and a break of the high of the recently witnessed sideways move i.e. 1.2973 and then the psychological level of 1.3000 takes place then our focus will turn back towards a retest of 1.3128/1.3139.”  

EUR/USD Outlook For This Week:

Please check the relative strengths of recent economic releases and technical indications at following links as the base of this week's forecast of EUR/USD. We recommend to check the economic strength meter on Fundamental Outlook page.
EUR/USD Fundamental OutlookEUR/USD Technical Outlook

 

Euro-US Dollar (EUR/USD) had gone as high as 1.3308 after breaking over the May 1st, 2012's resistance of 1.3283. After this break the pair could not sustain over 1.3300 and the second attempt to break over this failed at 1.3295. After 8 day's price action over 5-day EMA, ER/USD managed to break below this support and went as low as 1.3158 before closing for the week at 1.3188 i.e. almost at the 5-day EMA.

The break of May 1st resistance indicate the underlying bullish sentiments but the failure of sustaining over 1.3300 and the subsequent break of the recent support level of 5-day EMA and also the Tenkan line of daily Ichimoku cloud indicate the possibilities of further downward consolidation before we see some more upward gains. Please check the technical outlook page as well as this EUR/USD Chart alert.

On the upside we expect a resistance first near 1.3232 and even if this is broken then next resistance is expected below 1.3280. With these resistance holding, we would expect further consolidation towards first a minor support neat 1.3025/1.3030 and with a break of that towards the support zone of 1.3090/1.3110. This support zone is derived by 22-day EMA, which is currently near 1.3095, as well as the next support level of daily Ichimoku cloud i.e. Kijun line support at 1.3093. However on the downside any sustained break below 1.3080 and more specifically 1.3065 will neutralize the outlook for some immediate further gains. Such a break should bring further consolidation towards 1.2095 (55-day EMA) or more.

With the supports in the range of 1.3090/1.3125 holding, another break over 1.3308 should bring further gains first towards 1.3370/1.3385 resistance and any decisive break of this should take EUR/USD towards 1.3480/1.3486. This level does not only represent the resistance during later half of February 2012 but such a move will also represent the 50% retracement of the  downward move during beginning of May, 2011 and July 24, 2012. Please check the ending of this post regarding EUR/USD.

 

 

EUR/USD Trading Strategies:

As mentioned above that initially we remain in favor of some downward consolidation before another upward move. However instead of going for short-selling, we look forward to buying near the mentioned support levels with tight stop-loss orders.

(For short term Forex trades, please refer to daily technical analysis for Euro/U.S. Dollar at EUR/USD Analysis. You may also share and check any real-time trade positions for EUR/USD in the forum and the current EUR/USD market sentiments.)

There can also be some news or some indications from technical indicators or chart patterns which may suggest some major moves. Please check and share such observations about about Euro-Dollar and other currency pairs in the Forex Alerts.

Important tags for outlook posted in the Forex blog: EUR/USDEUR/USD AnalysisEUR/USD Outlook,  EUR/USD Support and ResistanceEUR/USD Alert, EUR/USD Forecast, EUR/USD Today.

You may also check EUR/USD Correlation with other currency majors.

EUR/USD Interest Rate Comparision
(For Carry Trade)
Euro interest rate 
0.75%
US Dollar interest rate 
0.25%
Euro-Dollar interest rate comparision 
0.50%

 

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