-euro / dollar 1.31 is support below 1.33
-USDJPY resistance at 92.00/30
-GBPUSD fails shy of 1.53...again
-USDCHF may have found bottom at 1.0861
-AUDUSD bearish on decline below .6956
Since a triangle or flat is probably underway from 1.2327, it is unlikely that 1.3310 holds up. However, with the EURUSD in what should prove to be a time consuming correction, confidence in short term structure is low. A drop below 1.3310 would target support near 1.31.
To review, the USDJPY rally failed just short of the 61.8% of 1006.60-87.09 at 95.21. This is also the center of a former congestion zone (roughly 94-97) as well as the 100% extension of the rally from 87.09 to 91.31; at 94.08. The rally from 87.09 is in 3 waves, which is corrective. As such, a drop below 87.09 is expected. Any rally should prove corrective in nature. Short term resistance is 92.00/30.
I wrote yesterday that Additional upside is expected. The next resistance is former support at 1.5259. 1.5420 is calculated monthly pivot R1. Risk can be moved to 1.48. The GBPUSD came close to 1.54 but 5 waves up from the low strongly suggest that the bulk of the move, at least in the short term, is complete. Weakness is expected down to at least 1.4980 over the course of the next several days.
The sharp drop from 1.23 is in 5 waves and probably wave A within an A-B-C correction that will end below 1.0367. The rally from 1.0367 is the B wave of that sequence and likely tests resistance from Fibonacci 1.15, eventually. Wave b of B is underway now and may be complete at 1.0861.
We need to wait for the USDCAD to complete this 4th wave correction prior to taking a directional stand. A drop below 1.1459 would do the trick as that would most likely be the end to a flat. A triangle is also not out of the question, although in that case a tightening range would last at least a month or more.
The AUDUSD has reached initial resistance from the confluence of the October 14th high / 38.2% of .9856-.6005 at .7247/56. The structure of the decline on very short term intraday charts (15 min) is promising from a bear's perspective (decline looks impulsive). Even if wave (2) is not complete, it is likely that the rally from .6005 would experience a sizeable retracement because it is in 3 waves (a flat with structure 3-3-5 could unfold). Coming under .6956 would warrant a bearish bias.
I would still like to see the NZDUSD complete 5 waves up from .5186 but with patterns in the GBPUSD and AUDUSD suggesting weakness, I am not confident that Kiwi will exceed .6090. In any case, a push through would target Fibonacci resistance at .6183, which is reinforced by former congestion.