I looks like a safe landing for Eurozone is very remote unless European leaders act decisively on reform measures, something they have not exhibited since the beginning of the crisis.
Despite the European Central Bank's vow to draw up a mechanism to make outright purchases and stabilize the Eurozone borrowing costs, the lack of more in-depth systematic reforms will see such measures achieve only temporary results. Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday the body may undertake "outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective".
The latest economic survey has cast a gloom over Europe. Financial information provider Markit's purchasing manager's index (PMI) for Eurozone manufacturing, unchanged at 45.1 in June, is at its lowest since June 2009. Some forward-looking indicators, such as business expectations index, also show that the Eurozone economy is de facto in recession.
The corporate sector cut its work force at the fastest pace since Y 2010, anticipating austerity measures as a result of upcoming steps to tackle the crisis. All indicators point to a worsening situation, while leaders of the Eurozone economies continue to bargain over compromises in the rescue plans with no clear resolve.
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde has warned that there are also "serious questions" about the US economic future.
The United States will see declining government spending and surging tax burdens in what is called a "fiscal cliff" early next year.
The world economy is steadily spiraling down, and China's revived expansion, expected in 2-H of this year, alone will not be enough to bolster the whole world economy.
Ms. Lagarde and European leaders have known what the right cure for the European malaise is: Eurozone member states need to further integrate their banks and budget policies to provide systematic support for the EUR.
But what has happened in the past months show that it has become a huge task for leaders from countries of different sovereignty to find the "Golden" option that satisfies their voters, political opponents and the collective interest of the Eurozone.
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The ECB has made it clear that it will do whatever it takes to combat the crisis.
However, they can only loosen its monetary policy furthers and provide cheaper loans for its banks. Effective as it would be in temporarily reducing market concerns, it cannot be said with certainty that it would resolve the Eurozone crisis fully.
To prevent the EUR from crashing, European leaders have to show greater political resolve and wisdom, only then can they make systematic breakthroughs to ultimately bailout the suffering currency. Stay tuned...
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.