Lots of Political Maneuvers in Europe, but no answers yet.
Economist Shayne Heffernan takes a look at the latest from Europe.
Markets mistakenly rallied after the EU leaders made many promises with few details, while it sounded good to market players, the reality is even if they kept all their promises the EuroCrisis has a good 3 years left:
The Base of the Rally were Politicians promising to:
* Centralise regulation of European banks and, if necessary, bail them out directly, instead of funnelling loans through governments that already have too much debt.
Easy to say, the fight to form the Euro went on for a decade, the fight for a Centralized Bank will last just as long.
* Ease borrowing costs on Italy and Spain, the euro region's third- and fourth- largest economies.
Nice statement, but provided without any detail, what can really be done for an economy where Government Debt surpasses GDP?
* Stop mandating painful budget cuts to every country in need of emergency financial aid.
If Europe is to meet the debt commitments and stimulate the Euro would need to trade at 73cUS, given they do not have the cash to support the reduced spending levels, how is it possible to leave that spending in place and stimulate? Easy, it is not possible.
* Tie their budgets, currency and governments more tightly.
The 28 senior leaders have trouble agreeing on a lunch menu, trying to bring them closer will be heavily resisted.
As Mrs Merkel told the German parliament just ahead of the summit: Germany is an economic engine and an anchor of stability in Europe, but not even Germany's forces are infinite. Not even Germany's strength is unlimited; we must also not overestimate Germany's strength. If we take that to heart, then Germany's forces can be fully effective for the benefit of our country and for the benefit of Europe.
If we do not take that to heart, then everything we are planning, agreeing, implementing would ultimately be worthless, because it would be clear that it demanded too much of Germany and that would, in turn, have unforeseeable consequences for Germany and Europe. We will not allow that to happen.
The question a week or so ago was whether Germany would indeed deploy its economic strength, in the months to come, the focus will now shift more and more to the limits of German strength.
Shayne Heffernan oversees the management of funds for institutions and high net worth individuals.
Shayne Heffernan holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reached a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.Read the Terms of Service
The two main pots, the European Financial Stability Facility and the soon-to-be founded European Stability Mechanism have some €500bn (£400bn) available to buy debt. But the sovereign debt of Spain and Italy totals some €2,400bn and past experience of publicly funded purchases of sovereign debt (indirectly with ECB loans) have been that putting public money in merely allows private savings to get out. The available funds could be used up very fast.
When that happens once again, the German taxpayer will be asked to take on more potential liabilities. Once again, we have to assume, the German government will reluctantly cave in. Indeed it will go on to implode.
Germany itself is at risk of a slowdown, which would make it even harder to end Europe's crisis. Many analysts say a downturn would hit home to Germans how much they depend on the health of other European economies. If so, they could become more willing to put money at risk to support their weaker neighbors.
Those issues are helping drive discussions that began Thursday at a European Union summit in Brussels. The summit is intended to reach agreements on how to shore up Europe's economies and save the euro alliance. Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic affairs, said Thursday he expects an agreement on steps to spur growth and reduce Spain's and Italy's unsustainably high borrowing costs.
Concerns about Germany's economy grew last week with a report that German business optimism fell in June. Earlier in the week, a survey showed manufacturing was slowing. Germany's economy is powered by exports, and manufacturing is at the heart.
Both surveys are intended to forecast where Germany's economy could be in several months. For now, its economy remains far stronger than its European neighbors'.
German retail sales unexpectedly fell for a second month in May as the sovereign debt crisis worsened, damping the economic outlook.
Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, dropped 0.3 percent from April, when they declined 0.2 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists forecast a gain of 0.2 percent, the median of 13 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows. Sales dropped 1.1 percent from a year ago.
Unemployment at a two-decade low, falling energy costs and rising wages have bolstered consumer spending this year, helping to shield the German economy from Europe's turmoil. With at least seven euro nations in recession and budget cuts across the region eroding demand for German exports, investors and executives are growing more pessimistic.
Unemployment is just 5.4 percent. German autos and other products have been selling well in China and North America. Low interest rates have made it easy to borrow and invest. And the euro's value, held down by weaker nations in the currency alliance, has made German goods affordable for foreign buyers.
But Europe's raging debt crisis threatens the entire continent. Nearly 60 percent of Germany's exports go to the 27 countries in the European Union. Recessions in Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal are weakening demand for those goods.
Slowing growth by its trading partners in Asia is also affecting Germany's economy. Asia accounted for 16 percent of German exports. Germany's exports to China surged 15 percent last year and contributed significantly to Germany's 3 percent growth in 2011.
Fear of a catastrophe, possibly resulting from a Greek exit from the eurozone or the need to bail out a big economy like Italy's, could make German businesses scale back plans to expand.
Economists still foresee modest growth in Germany this year, whose gross domestic product totaled €2.57 trillion ($3.42 trillion) in 2011 and accounted for 27 percent of the eurozone's economy. The interest rate on Germany's 10-year bond is just 1.56 percent - even lower than the rate on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note.