US retail sales seen flagging

WAG, KSS, ROSS, M, JWN, TJX, EXRX

Retail Metrics came out with its preliminary numbers on June US same-store sales, the report signals caution.

The numbers are expected to show just 1.0% growth in the same-store sales, down from 1.1% last week.

The firm is factoring out lost business from Walgreen Co. (NYSE:WAG) since it lost the Express Scripts (NASDAQ:ESRX) business and says that the total June same-store sales would be + 2.4%.

On the trend; the report shows that the final Saturday sales and traffic looked 'somewhat soft' ahead of the 4th of July sale promotions. And tropical storm Debby also was a small drag at the end of the month.

Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) is expected to drag down the department store sector as the report Tuesday noted that it had inadequate inventory this Spring.

The index is now 90 basis points lower at -2.5% negative for the month of June.

Retail Metrics noted that Macy's Inc. (NYSE:M) was brought down 10 basis points to 2.5% and there was a blip higher for Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE:JWN).

Some specialty apparel shops are expected to grow more than expected, which included The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) and Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROSS).

There are Key issues which could come into play, gasoline prices at the pump are acting as less of a consumer drag now that many stations in the US are selling gasoline in the 3.00 gal range again.

Last year June numbers were high, so the gains on the month this year were seem to be 'hard to hit' early on. Add to that Tropical Storm Debby may or may not have a strong impact despite wide spread power outages, damage and floods.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.